Department of Biology, University of Toronto Mississauga, Mississauga, Ontario, Canada.
School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK.
Glob Chang Biol. 2024 Mar;30(3):e17236. doi: 10.1111/gcb.17236.
Climate change is restructuring biodiversity on multiple scales and there is a pressing need to understand the downstream ecological and genomic consequences of this change. Recent advancements in the field of eco-evolutionary genomics have sought to include evolutionary processes in forecasting species' responses to climate change (e.g., genomic offset), but to date, much of this work has focused on terrestrial species. Coastal and offshore species, and the fisheries they support, may be even more vulnerable to climate change than their terrestrial counterparts, warranting a critical appraisal of these approaches in marine systems. First, we synthesize knowledge about the genomic basis of adaptation in marine species, and then we discuss the few examples where genomic forecasting has been applied in marine systems. Next, we identify the key challenges in validating genomic offset estimates in marine species, and we advocate for the inclusion of historical sampling data and hindcasting in the validation phase. Lastly, we describe a workflow to guide marine managers in incorporating these predictions into the decision-making process.
气候变化正在多个尺度上重构生物多样性，迫切需要了解这种变化对下游生态和基因组的影响。生态进化基因组学领域的最新进展试图将进化过程纳入对物种对气候变化的响应预测（例如，基因组偏移），但迄今为止，这项工作主要集中在陆地物种上。沿海和近海物种及其支持的渔业可能比它们的陆地同类更容易受到气候变化的影响，因此需要对这些方法在海洋系统中进行批判性评估。首先，我们综合了海洋物种适应的基因组基础的知识，然后讨论了基因组预测在海洋系统中应用的少数例子。接下来，我们确定了在海洋物种中验证基因组偏移估计的关键挑战，并主张在验证阶段纳入历史采样数据和回溯预测。最后，我们描述了一个工作流程，以指导海洋管理者将这些预测纳入决策过程。
