Development and validation of a novel score for predicting perioperative major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with stable coronary artery disease undergoing noncardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND

A model developed specifically for stable coronary artery disease (SCAD) patients to predict perioperative major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) has not been previously reported.

METHODS

The derivation cohort consisted of 5780 patients with SCAD undergoing noncardiac surgery at the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine, from January 1, 2013 until May 31, 2021. The validation cohort consisted of 2677 similar patients from June 1, 2021 to May 31, 2023. The primary outcome was a composite of MACEs (death, resuscitated cardiac arrest, myocardial infarction, heart failure, and stroke) intraoperatively or during hospitalization postoperatively.

RESULTS

Six predictors, including Creatinine >90 μmol/L, Hemoglobin <110 g/L, Albumin <40 g/L, Leukocyte >10 ×10/L, high-risk Surgery (general abdominal or vascular), and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) class (III or IV), were selected in the final model (CHALSA score). Each patient was assigned a CHALSA score of 0, 1, 2, 3, or > 3 according to the number of predictors present. The incidence of perioperative MACEs increased steadily across the CHALSA score groups in both the derivation (0.5%, 1.4%, 2.9%, 6.8%, and 23.4%, respectively; p < 0.001) and validation (0.3%, 1.5%, 4.1%, 9.2%, and 29.2%, respectively; p < 0.001) cohorts. The CHALSA score had a higher discriminatory ability than the revised cardiac risk index (C statistic: 0.827 vs. 0.695 in the validation dataset; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The CHALSA score showed good validity in an external dataset and will be a valuable bedside tool to guide the perioperative management of patients with SCAD undergoing noncardiac surgery.