Jitsuk Natcha C, Chadsuthi Sudarat, Modchang Charin
Biophysics Group, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok, 10400, Thailand.
Center for Disease Modeling, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok, 10400, Thailand.
Heliyon. 2024 Mar 15;10(6):e28042. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e28042. eCollection 2024 Mar 30.
Mass vaccination has proven to be an effective control measure for mitigating the transmission of infectious diseases. Throughout history, various vaccination strategies have been employed to control infections and terminate outbreaks. In this study, we utilized the transmission of COVID-19 as a case study and constructed a stochastic age-structured compartmental model to investigate the effectiveness of different vaccination strategies. Our analysis focused on estimating the outbreak extinction probability under different vaccination scenarios in both homogeneous and heterogeneous populations. Notably, we found that population heterogeneity can enhance the likelihood of outbreak extinction at varying levels of vaccine coverage. Prioritizing vaccinations for individuals with higher infection risk was found to maximize outbreak extinction probability and reduce overall infections, while allocating vaccines to those with higher mortality risk has been proven more effective in reducing deaths. Moreover, our study highlighted the significance of booster doses as the vaccine effectiveness wanes over time, showing that they can significantly enhance the extinction probability and mitigate disease transmission.
大规模疫苗接种已被证明是减轻传染病传播的有效控制措施。纵观历史，人们采用了各种疫苗接种策略来控制感染并终止疫情爆发。在本研究中，我们以新冠病毒的传播为例进行研究，并构建了一个随机年龄结构的 compartmental 模型，以调查不同疫苗接种策略的有效性。我们的分析重点是估计在同质和异质人群中不同疫苗接种方案下疫情爆发灭绝的概率。值得注意的是，我们发现人群异质性可以在不同疫苗接种覆盖率水平上提高疫情爆发灭绝的可能性。研究发现，优先为感染风险较高的个体接种疫苗可使疫情爆发灭绝概率最大化并减少总体感染，而将疫苗分配给死亡风险较高的人群已被证明在减少死亡方面更有效。此外，我们的研究强调了加强针的重要性，因为疫苗效力会随着时间减弱，表明加强针可以显著提高灭绝概率并减轻疾病传播。
