Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON K1H 8L6, Canada.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, CA 94143, USA.
Curr Oncol. 2024 Mar 20;31(3):1600-1617. doi: 10.3390/curroncol31030122.
Using digitized data from progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival Kaplan-Meier curves, one can assess population survival kinetics through exponential decay nonlinear regression analyses. To demonstrate their utility, we analyzed PFS curves from published curative-intent trials of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) adjuvant chemotherapy, adjuvant osimertinib in resected -mutant NSCLC (ADAURA trial), chemoradiotherapy for inoperable NSCLC, and limited small cell lung cancer (SCLC). These analyses permit assessment of log-linear curve shape and estimation of the proportion of patients cured, PFS half-lives for subpopulations destined to eventually relapse, and probability of eventual relapse in patients remaining progression-free at different time points. The proportion of patients potentially cured was 41% for adjuvant controls, 58% with adjuvant chemotherapy, 17% for ADAURA controls, not assessable with adjuvant osimertinib, 15% with chemoradiotherapy, and 12% for SCLC. Median PFS half-life for relapsing subpopulations was 11.9 months for adjuvant controls, 17.4 months with adjuvant chemotherapy, 24.4 months for ADAURA controls, not assessable with osimertinib, 9.3 months with chemoradiotherapy, and 10.7 months for SCLC. For those remaining relapse-free at 2 and 5 years, the cure probability was 74%/96% for adjuvant controls, 77%/93% with adjuvant chemotherapy, 51%/94% with chemoradiation, and 39%/87% with limited SCLC. Relatively easy population kinetic analyses add useful information.
利用无进展生存期（PFS）和总生存期 Kaplan-Meier 曲线的数字化数据，可以通过指数衰减非线性回归分析评估人群生存动力学。为了证明其效用，我们分析了发表的非小细胞肺癌（NSCLC）辅助化疗、切除突变 NSCLC 辅助奥希替尼（ADAURA 试验）、不可切除 NSCLC 的放化疗和局限期小细胞肺癌（SCLC）的治愈意向试验的 PFS 曲线。这些分析允许评估对数线性曲线形状，并估计治愈患者的比例、注定最终复发的亚群的 PFS 半衰期，以及在不同时间点无进展的患者最终复发的概率。辅助对照组潜在治愈患者的比例为 41%，辅助化疗组为 58%，ADAURA 对照组为 17%，奥希替尼辅助治疗组不可评估，放化疗组为 15%，SCLC 组为 12%。复发亚群的中位 PFS 半衰期为辅助对照组 11.9 个月，辅助化疗组 17.4 个月，ADAURA 对照组 24.4 个月，奥希替尼辅助治疗组不可评估，放化疗组 9.3 个月，SCLC 组 10.7 个月。对于那些在 2 年和 5 年时仍未复发的患者，辅助对照组的治愈概率为 74%/96%，辅助化疗组为 77%/93%，放化疗组为 51%/94%，局限期 SCLC 组为 39%/87%。相对简单的群体动力学分析增加了有用的信息。
