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基于熵权的水质指数、水文地球化学与 Monte Carlo 模拟方法研究——来自塞尔维亚摩拉瓦河流域平原地下水的特定污染源健康风险评估。

Entropy-weighted water quality index, hydrogeochemistry, and Monte Carlo simulation of source-specific health risks of groundwater in the Morava River plain (Serbia).

机构信息

University of Belgrade, Faculty of Technology and Metallurgy, Karnegijeva 4, 11120 Belgrade, Serbia; University of Belgrade, Faculty of Pharmacy, Vojvode Stepe 450, 11221 Belgrade, Serbia.

Serbian Environmental Protection Agency, Ruže Jovanovića 27a, 11160 Belgrade, Serbia.

出版信息

Mar Pollut Bull. 2024 Apr;201:116277. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2024.116277. Epub 2024 Mar 26.

Abstract

Population growth, urbanization, industry, floods, and agriculture globally degrade groundwater in river plains, necessitating action for its quality assessment and management. Hence, a comprehensive methodology, including hydrogeochemical facies (Piper, Gibbs), irrigation indices (SAR, Wilcox), entropy-weighted water quality index (EWQI), positive matrix factorization (PMF), and Monte Carlo simulation of source-specific health risks was used in this study to analyze groundwater in the Morava river plain (Serbia). The results revealed a prevalent Ca-Mg-HCO3 groundwater type, influenced by water-rock interactions. Although groundwater was found suitable for irrigation, only 66.7 % of the samples were considered drinkable. Agricultural activities, natural processes, and municipal wastewater were identified as primary pollution sources. The incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) and hazard index (HI) threshold exceedance for adults and children ranged from 8.5 % to 39 % of the samples, with arsenic identified as the most risk-contributing contaminant. These findings provide valuable insights for researchers studying groundwater vulnerability in river plains.

摘要

人口增长、城市化、工业、洪水和农业在全球范围内使河流平原的地下水退化,需要采取行动对其进行质量评估和管理。因此,本研究采用了包括水地球化学相(Piper、Gibbs)、灌溉指数(SAR、Wilcox)、熵权水质指数(EWQI)、正定矩阵因子分解(PMF)和基于蒙特卡罗模拟的源特定健康风险在内的综合方法,对塞尔维亚莫拉瓦河流域平原的地下水进行了分析。结果表明,普遍存在的 Ca-Mg-HCO3 地下水类型受到水岩相互作用的影响。尽管地下水适合灌溉,但只有 66.7%的样本被认为可饮用。农业活动、自然过程和城市废水被确定为主要污染源。成年人和儿童的增量终生癌症风险 (ILCR) 和危害指数 (HI) 超标率在样本中占 8.5%至 39%,砷被确定为最具风险的污染物。这些发现为研究河流平原地下水脆弱性的研究人员提供了有价值的见解。

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