[Meta analysis of the predictive efficacy of various derived indicators of sequential organ failure assessment in outcomes of patients with sepsis].

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review and evaluate the predictive efficacy of various derived indicators of sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) in mortality rate of sepsis patients.

METHODS

Literature on sepsis and SOFA scores were searched in PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library. The retrieval time will be set to the time of database-building to February, 2023. The main outcome measures included 28-day mortality, 30-day mortality, in-hospital mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) mortality and long-term mortality. Literature screening, data extraction and quality evaluation were carried out independently by 2 researchers. Data were analyzed by Revman 5.3.5, Meta-disc and Stata software. Deek funnel plots were used to assess publication bias in the included studies.

RESULTS

A total of 40 articles including 51 trials were included. Of these, 32 were in English and 8 in Chinese, 17 were in prospective trials and 34 were in retrospective trials, 38 were in initial SOFA-related trials and 9 were in the change of SOFA score (ΔSOFA)-related studies, a total of 59 962 patients were enrolled. (1) The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of initial SOFA and ΔSOFA for predicting outcome in sepsis was 0.773 and 0.787 (Z = 0.115, P > 0.05), respectively. There was no significant difference between the two indexes in predicting the outcome of patients with sepsis. (2) In subgroup analysis, due to limitations in the number of literature articles, the 28-day mortality rate and 30-day mortality rate were merged for discussion. The predictive power of ΔSOFA for 28-day or 30-day mortality was significantly higher than that of initial SOFA (AUC was 0.854, 0.787, Z = 2.603, P ≤ 0.01). (3) There were few studies on ΔSOFA in predicting in-hospital mortality, ICU mortality and long-term mortality of sepsis patients. The AUC of the initial SOFA for predicting the study endpoints described above was: ICU mortality (0.814) > 28-day or 30-day mortality (0.787) > in-hospital mortality (0.697) > long-term mortality (0.646). (4) Initial SOFA and ΔSOFA in patients with sepsis of non-Han original had good predictive performance and there was no significant difference between them (AUC was 0.766, 0.811, respectively). However, the pooled sensitivity of ΔSOFA was higher (92%). (5) In prospective studies, initial SOFA was better at predicting outcomes in patients with sepsis (AUC was 0.804, pooled sensitivity 64%). The sensitivity of ΔSOFA indicators in predicting the outcome of sepsis patients was significantly higher than the initial SOFA (78% vs. 64%). The funnel plot showed that there was no significant publication bias in the included literature.

CONCLUSIONS

ΔSOFA has a relatively high diagnostic efficacy in predicting short-term (28-day or 30-day) mortality in patients with sepsis.