Alcohol Research Group, Public Health Institute, Emeryville, California.
Department of Health Law, Policy, and Management, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts.
JAMA Intern Med. 2024 Jun 1;184(6):612-618. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2024.0255.
It is well established that alcohol outlets (ie, places that sell alcohol) attract crime, particularly during late-night hours.
To evaluate the association of Maryland Senate Bill 571 (SB571), which reduced the hours of sale for bars/taverns in 1 Baltimore neighborhood from 6 am to 2 am to 9 am to 10 pm, with violent crime within that neighborhood.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This controlled interrupted time series analysis compared the change in violent crime density within an 800-ft buffer around bars/taverns in the treatment neighborhood (ie, subject to SB571) and 2 control areas with a similar mean baseline crime rate, alcohol outlet density, and neighborhood disadvantage score in the City of Baltimore between May 1, 2018, and December 31, 2022. The interrupted time series using Poisson regression with overdispersion adjustment tested whether the violent crime density differed before vs after the policy change in the treatment neighborhood and whether this difference was localized to the treatment neighborhood.
Statutory reduction of bar/tavern selling hours from 20 to 13 hours per day in the treatment neighborhood.
The primary outcome was all violent crime, including homicide, robbery, aggravated and common assault, and forcible rape. Secondary outcomes were homicides and assaults. All violent crime measures summed the monthly incidents within 800 ft of bars/taverns from 8 pm to 4 am. For each outcome, a level change estimated the immediate change (first month after implementation), and a slope change estimated the sustained change after implementation (percent reduction after the first month). These level and slope changes were then compared between the treatment and control neighborhoods.
The treatment neighborhood included 26 bars/taverns (mean [SD] population, 524.6 [234.6] residents), and the control neighborhoods included 41 bars/taverns (mean [SD] population per census block, 570.4 [217.4] residents). There was no immediate level change in density of all violent crimes the month after implementation of SB571; however, compared with the control neighborhoods, the slope of all violent crime density decreased by 23% per year in the treatment neighborhood after SB571 implementation (annualized incidence rate ratio, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.60-0.98; P = .04). Similar results were seen for homicides and assaults. Several sensitivity analyses supported the robustness of these results.
This study's findings suggest that alcohol policies that reduce hours of sale could be associated with a reduction in violent crimes. Given these findings, SB571 may serve as a model for other cities looking to create safer neighborhoods.
众所周知，酒类销售点（即销售酒类的场所）会吸引犯罪，尤其是在深夜时分。
评估马里兰州参议院法案 571（SB571）的效果，该法案将巴尔的摩市一个街区的酒吧/酒馆的销售时间从凌晨 6 点至凌晨 2 点缩短至上午 9 点至晚上 10 点，以评估其对该街区内暴力犯罪的影响。
设计、地点和参与者：本项对照干预时间序列分析比较了在巴尔的摩市，2018 年 5 月 1 日至 2022 年 12 月 31 日期间，干预街区（即受 SB571 影响的街区）和两个具有相似基线犯罪率、酒类销售点密度和社区劣势评分的控制区，在干预街区周围 800 英尺缓冲区周围的酒吧/酒馆内的暴力犯罪密度变化，该干预街区的酒吧/酒馆的法定销售时间从每天 20 小时减少到 13 小时，控制区没有发生这种变化。使用泊松回归和过度分散调整的干预时间序列检验了干预街区的暴力犯罪密度在政策变化前后是否存在差异，以及这种差异是否局限于干预街区。
干预街区的酒吧/酒馆的法定销售时间从每天 20 小时减少到 13 小时。
主要结果是所有暴力犯罪，包括杀人、抢劫、严重和普通攻击以及强制强奸。次要结果是杀人事件和攻击事件。所有暴力犯罪的衡量标准是从晚上 8 点到凌晨 4 点在酒吧/酒馆周围 800 英尺范围内每月发生的事件数量。对于每个结果，水平变化估计了实施后的即时变化（实施后的第一个月），斜率变化估计了实施后的持续变化（实施后的第一个月后的百分比减少）。然后将这些水平和斜率变化与治疗和对照社区进行比较。
干预街区包括 26 家酒吧/酒馆（平均[SD]人口为 524.6[234.6]人），对照街区包括 41 家酒吧/酒馆（每块街区的平均[SD]人口为 570.4[217.4]人）。在 SB571 实施后的第一个月，所有暴力犯罪的密度没有立即发生变化；然而，与对照社区相比，SB571 实施后，干预社区的所有暴力犯罪密度的斜率每年下降 23%（年化发病率比，0.77；95%CI，0.60-0.98；P=0.04）。杀人事件和攻击事件也出现了类似的结果。几项敏感性分析支持了这些结果的稳健性。
本研究的结果表明，减少酒类销售时间的酒类政策可能与暴力犯罪的减少有关。鉴于这些发现，SB571 可以作为其他城市创建更安全社区的典范。
