Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA 30329, United States.
Global Influenza Programme, World Health Organization, Av. Appia 20, 1202 Geneva, Switzerland.
Vaccine. 2024 Oct 24;42 Suppl 4(Suppl 4):125861. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.04.007. Epub 2024 Apr 6.
Estimating the burden of disease averted by vaccination can assist policymakers to implement, adjust, and communicate the value of vaccination programs. Demonstrating the use of a newly available modeling tool, we estimated the burden of influenza illnesses averted by seasonal influenza vaccination in El Salvador, Panama, and Peru during 2011-2018 among two influenza vaccine target populations: children aged 6-23 months and pregnant women.
We derived model inputs, including incidence, vaccine coverage, vaccine effectiveness, and multipliers from publicly available country-level influenza surveillance data and cohort studies. We also estimated changes in illnesses averted when countries' vaccine coverage was achieved using four different vaccine deployment strategies.
Among children aged 6-23 months, influenza vaccination averted an estimated cumulative 2,161 hospitalizations, 81,907 medically-attended illnesses, and 126,987 overall illnesses during the study period, with a prevented fraction ranging from 0.3 % to 12.5 %. Among pregnant women, influenza vaccination averted an estimated cumulative 173 hospitalizations, 6,122 medically attended illnesses, and 16,412 overall illnesses, with a prevented fraction ranging from 0.2 % to 10.9 %. Compared to an influenza vaccine campaign with equal vaccine distribution during March-June, scenarios in which total cumulative coverage was achieved in March and April consistently resulted in the greatest increase in averted illness (23 %-3,129 % increase among young children and 22 %-3,260 % increase among pregnant women).
Influenza vaccination campaigns in El Salvador, Panama, and Peru conducted between 2011 and 2018 prevented hundreds to thousands of influenza-associated hospitalizations and illnesses in young children and pregnant women. Existing vaccination programs could prevent additional illnesses, using the same number of vaccines, by achieving the highest possible coverage within the first two months of an influenza vaccine campaign.
评估疫苗接种预防的疾病负担可以帮助决策者实施、调整和传播疫苗接种计划的价值。通过展示一种新的可用建模工具，我们估计了 2011 年至 2018 年期间萨尔瓦多、巴拿马和秘鲁两个流感疫苗目标人群（6-23 月龄儿童和孕妇）中季节性流感疫苗接种预防流感相关疾病的负担。
我们从公开的国家流感监测数据和队列研究中获得了模型输入，包括发病率、疫苗覆盖率、疫苗效力和乘数。我们还估计了当各国疫苗覆盖率达到以下四种不同疫苗部署策略时，可避免的疾病变化。
在 6-23 月龄儿童中，流感疫苗接种在研究期间估计累计预防了 2161 例住院、81907 例就医的疾病和 126987 例总疾病，预防比例为 0.3%-12.5%。在孕妇中，流感疫苗接种估计累计预防了 173 例住院、6122 例就医的疾病和 16412 例总疾病，预防比例为 0.2%-10.9%。与 3 月至 6 月期间疫苗分配均等的流感疫苗接种运动相比，总累计覆盖率在 3 月和 4 月达到的情况下，避免的疾病数量增加幅度最大（幼儿中为 23%-3129%，孕妇中为 22%-3260%）。
2011 年至 2018 年期间在萨尔瓦多、巴拿马和秘鲁进行的流感疫苗接种运动预防了数百至数千例 6-23 月龄儿童和孕妇的流感相关住院和疾病。通过在流感疫苗接种运动的头两个月内实现尽可能高的覆盖率，现有的疫苗接种计划可以使用相同数量的疫苗预防更多的疾病。
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