estimation of ecosystem water consumption and the suitable scale of cultivated land in the Karamay region and Muzat River basin based on the optimized SEBAL energy balance model and water resource constraint model.

Food security is closely related to the development of human society, and the root of food production lies in cultivated land, with water conservancy as its lifeline. This study estimates the ecological water consumption of located in the arid region of Northwest China (the Karamay region and Muzat River basin) from 1990 to 2020 based on the optimized Land Surface Energy Balance Algorithm. The verification accuracy of SEBAL energy balance model is greatly improved after optimization. It was showed an increasing trend in the Karamay region and Muzat River basin, increasing at the rates of 2.84 mm/year and 2.86 mm/year respectively. The suitability of cultivated land was evaluated by combining four periods of 30 m spatial resolution land use/land cover data from 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, as well as the Hydrological Statistical Yearbook and Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook. Through the analysis of spatial optimization for cultivated land, it can be inferred that the primary limiting factors affecting cultivated land suitability in the Karamay region are irrigation guarantee rate (54.03%) and soil salinity (11.98%). Muzat River region are irrigation guarantee rate (32.19%) and soil salinity (18.62%). By comparing the scenarios of setting ecological priority and cultivated land priority, it is concluded that under the conditions of water resource constraints and 50%, 75% and 90% design irrigation assurance rates, Karamay still has cultivated land expansion potential, which can be used as the main preparatory reclamation area. In addition to the traditional agriculture irrigation area, the Muzat River basin still has development potential under the condition of ecological priority and no more than 75% irrigation design assurance rate. The study on the cultivated land suitability under the condition of water resource constraints can provide new ideas for food security.