Ping Jiao, Chang-Yan Tian, Shun-Jun Hu
Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Urumqi, 830000, China.
School of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100000, China.
Heliyon. 2024 Mar 27;10(7):e28190. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e28190. eCollection 2024 Apr 15.
Food security is closely related to the development of human society, and the root of food production lies in cultivated land, with water conservancy as its lifeline. This study estimates the ecological water consumption of located in the arid region of Northwest China (the Karamay region and Muzat River basin) from 1990 to 2020 based on the optimized Land Surface Energy Balance Algorithm. The verification accuracy of SEBAL energy balance model is greatly improved after optimization. It was showed an increasing trend in the Karamay region and Muzat River basin, increasing at the rates of 2.84 mm/year and 2.86 mm/year respectively. The suitability of cultivated land was evaluated by combining four periods of 30 m spatial resolution land use/land cover data from 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, as well as the Hydrological Statistical Yearbook and Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook. Through the analysis of spatial optimization for cultivated land, it can be inferred that the primary limiting factors affecting cultivated land suitability in the Karamay region are irrigation guarantee rate (54.03%) and soil salinity (11.98%). Muzat River region are irrigation guarantee rate (32.19%) and soil salinity (18.62%). By comparing the scenarios of setting ecological priority and cultivated land priority, it is concluded that under the conditions of water resource constraints and 50%, 75% and 90% design irrigation assurance rates, Karamay still has cultivated land expansion potential, which can be used as the main preparatory reclamation area. In addition to the traditional agriculture irrigation area, the Muzat River basin still has development potential under the condition of ecological priority and no more than 75% irrigation design assurance rate. The study on the cultivated land suitability under the condition of water resource constraints can provide new ideas for food security.
粮食安全与人类社会发展息息相关，而粮食生产的根基在于耕地，水利则是其命脉。本研究基于优化后的陆面能量平衡算法，估算了中国西北干旱地区（克拉玛依地区、木扎提河流域）1990年至2020年的生态用水量。优化后，SEBAL能量平衡模型的验证精度大幅提高。结果表明，克拉玛依地区和木扎提河流域呈上升趋势，分别以每年2.84毫米和2.86毫米的速率增加。结合1990年、2000年、2010年和2020年四个时期30米空间分辨率的土地利用/土地覆盖数据，以及《水文统计年鉴》和《新疆统计年鉴》，对耕地适宜性进行了评价。通过对耕地的空间优化分析可以推断，影响克拉玛依地区耕地适宜性的主要限制因素是灌溉保证率（54.03%）和土壤盐分（11.98%）。木扎提河流域的主要限制因素是灌溉保证率（32.19%）和土壤盐分（18.62%）。通过比较设定生态优先和耕地优先的情景，得出结论：在水资源约束以及50%、75%和90%的设计灌溉保证率条件下，克拉玛依仍有耕地扩展潜力，可作为主要的预备开垦区。除传统农业灌溉区外，在生态优先且灌溉设计保证率不超过75%的条件下，木扎提河流域仍有发展潜力。水资源约束条件下的耕地适宜性研究可为粮食安全提供新思路。
