Global, regional and national temporal trends in prevalence for cardiovascular diseases in women of childbearing age, from 1990 to 2019: An age-period-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological studies on cardiovascular diseases (CVD) among women of childbearing age (WCBA) remain scarce. Our research aims to delineate the prevalence trends of CVD within this population over the past three decades, considering age, period, and birth cohort dynamics.

METHODS

Estimates of CVD prevalence for WCBA, along with their 95% uncertainty intervals (UI), were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases 2019 (). An age-period-cohort (APC) model was utilized to assess the annual percentage change (net drifts) in overall prevalence, annual percentage changes in prevalence for individual age groups (local drifts), and fitted longitudinal age-specific rates adjusted for age effects and period/cohort relative risks (period/cohort effect).

RESULTS

In 2019, the global prevalence of CVD among WCBA was 53.42 million (95% UI: 47.77 to 60.18). Eight countries recorded a prevalence exceeding one million, accounting for 54.17% of the global CVD prevalence in WCBA. Over the past 30 years, the annual net drift in CVD prevalence among the global WCBA was 0.27% (95% CI: 0.25 to 0.29). This value was 0.01% (95% CI: 0.04 to 0.06) in regions with a high sociodemographic index (SDI) and 0.21% (95% CI: 0.19 to 0.22) in those with a low SDI. Seventy-seven countries demonstrated an increasing trend in CVD prevalence, while 53 showed a decrease, and 74 remained relatively stable. Notably, as shown in local drift, there was a rise in CVD prevalence among adolescents aged 15-19 and adults aged 40-49 in regions categorized by five distinct SDI levels. This drift varied by SDI regions. Regions with a high SDI consistently had elevated period risks throughout the study duration, while other regions had lower period risks until 2000-2004 and displayed increased adverse period risks. The prevalence in low-middle and low SDI regions manifested detrimental trends, whereas other regions demonstrated an initial decline followed by a surge in successive birth cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Resources dedicated to CVD care for WCBA are largely insufficient, especially in low SDI regions. Thus, there is an urgent need to allocate cardiovascular healthcare resources variably across different SDI regions, aiming to diminish risks among successively younger birth cohorts. Throughout this endeavor, the formulation of targeted policies and the judicious distribution of resources are essential to reduce risks for women across all age groups.