新冠疫情对商业销售的早期影响。
The early impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on business sales.
作者信息
Fairlie Robert, Fossen Frank M
机构信息
Department of Economics, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA USA.
Stanford University (Visiting Scholar), Stanford, CA USA.
出版信息
Small Bus Econ (Dordr). 2022;58(4):1853-1864. doi: 10.1007/s11187-021-00479-4. Epub 2021 Mar 31.
ABSTRACT
COVID-19 led to a massive shutdown of businesses in the second quarter of 2020. Estimates from the Current Population Survey, for example, indicate that the number of active business owners dropped by 22% from February to April 2020. We provide the first analysis of losses in sales among the universe of businesses in California using administrative data from the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration. Losses in taxable sales average 17% in the second quarter of 2020 relative to the second quarter of 2019 even though year-over-year sales typically grow by 3-4%. We find that sales losses were largest in businesses affected by mandatory lockdowns such as accommodations, which lost 91%, whereas online sales grew by 180%. Placing business types into different categories based on whether they were considered essential or nonessential (and thus subject to early lockdowns) and whether they have a moderate or high level of person-to-person contact, we find interesting correlations between sales losses and COVID-19 cases per capita across counties in California. The results suggest that local implementation and enforcement of lockdown restrictions as safety measures for public health and voluntary behavioral responses as reactions to the perceived local COVID-19 spread both played a role.
PLAIN ENGLISH SUMMARY
Business sales dropped by 17% on average due to the pandemic during the second quarter of 2020 in California. Accommodations lost 91% of sales, whereas online sales grew by 180%. Sales fell more steeply in counties with more COVID-19 cases. We examine how much businesses lost in sales using administrative sales tax data. The average losses of 17% in the second quarter of 2020 relative to the second quarter of 2019 occurred even though year-over-year sales typically grow by 3-4%. We find that sales losses were largest in businesses affected by mandatory lockdowns such as accommodations, drinking places, and arts, entertainment, and recreation. Distinguishing between essential and nonessential businesses, which were subject to early lockdowns, and by the level of person-to-person contact, we find that local implementation and enforcement of lockdown restrictions for public health safety and voluntary responses to the perceived local COVID-19 spread both played a role. The results suggest that small businesses may need more support from governments and consumers to mitigate the strong shift to online vendors, and that the pandemic must be brought under control as a prerequisite to a full recovery.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11187-021-00479-4.
摘要
2020年第二季度，新冠疫情导致大量企业停业。例如，当前人口调查的估计数据显示，2020年2月至4月，活跃企业主数量下降了22%。我们利用加利福尼亚州税务和收费管理局的行政数据，首次对加利福尼亚州所有企业的销售额损失进行了分析。2020年第二季度，应税销售额相对于2019年第二季度平均下降了17%，尽管销售额通常同比增长3%-4%。我们发现，受强制封锁影响的企业销售额损失最大，比如住宿业损失了91%，而在线销售额增长了180%。根据企业类型是否被视为必需品或非必需品（因此是否受到早期封锁）以及它们的人际接触程度是中等还是较高，将企业类型分为不同类别，我们发现加利福尼亚州各县的销售额损失与人均新冠病例数之间存在有趣的相关性。结果表明，作为公共卫生安全措施的封锁限制的地方实施和执行，以及作为对当地新冠疫情传播的感知的自愿行为反应都起到了作用。
通俗易懂的总结
由于疫情，2020年第二季度加利福尼亚州企业销售额平均下降了17%。住宿业销售额损失了91%，而在线销售额增长了180%。新冠病例较多的县销售额下降更为严重。我们使用行政销售税数据研究了企业销售额损失情况。2020年第二季度相对于2019年第二季度平均损失17%，尽管销售额通常同比增长3%-4%。我们发现，受强制封锁影响的企业销售额损失最大，比如住宿业、饮酒场所、艺术、娱乐和休闲业。区分受早期封锁影响的必需品和非必需品企业以及人际接触程度，我们发现，为公共卫生安全实施和执行封锁限制以及对当地新冠疫情传播的感知做出自愿反应都起到了作用。结果表明，小企业可能需要政府和消费者更多的支持，以缓解向在线供应商的强烈转变，并且必须控制住疫情，这是全面复苏的先决条件。
补充信息
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s11187-021-00479-4获取的补充材料。
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