School of Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing, China.
National Academy of Innovation Strategy, China Association for Science and Technology, Beijing, China.
PLoS One. 2024 Apr 18;19(4):e0301500. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0301500. eCollection 2024.
In China, the number of senior citizens has grown, along with the burden of old age, and aging has hampered economic growth. The advent of the digital age has led to the emergence of the digital economy as a new engine for economic growth. This paper uses DEA-Malmquist index model to measure the total factor productivity growth rate of 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2021, and uses the moderating effects model to empirically investigate the relationship between the digital economy, aging and total factor productivity, and to verify whether the development of the digital economy can mitigate the negative impact of aging on total factor productivity. The results show that aging inhibits total factor productivity growth, and the digital economy can promote total factor productivity growth. Digital economy can alleviate the negative impact of aging on total factor productivity growth, and has a moderating effect. Digital economy plays a moderating role by improving the level of human capital and facilitating technological progress. The regional heterogeneity analysis shows that the moderating effect of the digital economy exists in the eastern and western regions and the southern region, but not in the central region and the northern region. Furthermore, the digital economy has a moderating effect on both the high and low aging groups. The research in this paper not only helps to evaluate the productivity effects of the digital economy, but also has important implications for finding ways to mitigate the negative effects of aging.
在中国，老年人口数量增加，养老负担加重，老龄化阻碍了经济增长。数字时代的到来催生了数字经济，成为经济增长的新引擎。本文利用 DEA-Malmquist 指数模型测算了 2011—2021 年中国 31 个省份的全要素生产率增长率，并采用调节效应模型实证检验了数字经济、老龄化与全要素生产率的关系，验证了数字经济的发展能否缓解老龄化对全要素生产率的负面影响。结果表明，老龄化抑制了全要素生产率的增长，数字经济能够促进全要素生产率的增长。数字经济能够缓解老龄化对全要素生产率增长的负面影响，具有调节效应。数字经济通过提高人力资本水平和促进技术进步来发挥调节作用。区域异质性分析表明，数字经济在东部、西部和南部地区具有调节作用，但在中部和北部地区不存在调节作用。此外，数字经济对高老龄化组和低老龄化组都具有调节作用。本文的研究不仅有助于评估数字经济的生产力效应，还为寻找缓解老龄化负面影响的方法提供了重要启示。
