Stephens C D, Orton H S, Usiskin L A
Br J Orthod. 1985 Oct;12(4):168-75. doi: 10.1179/bjo.12.4.168.
The fall in the number of births in England and Wales which took place between 1964 and 1977 is beginning to have an effect on the present-day demand for orthodontic treatment. Using the best available data a mathematical model has been used to predict the likely demand for orthodontic treatment in the General Dental Services of England and Wales from now until 2008. This suggests that there is likely to be a sharp decline in the number of new orthodontic patients presenting for treatment at practices limited to orthodontics during the next 5 years. The recent expansion in the number of places available for postgraduate study of orthodontics makes it extremely unlikely that the position will improve significantly thereafter. There can be little doubt that we are now producing too many orthodontic specialists even allowing for the increase in manpower which might be required to satisfy a future demand for higher standards of treatment.
1964年至1977年间英格兰和威尔士出生人数的下降，开始对当前的正畸治疗需求产生影响。利用现有的最佳数据，已使用数学模型预测从现在到2008年英格兰和威尔士国民医疗服务体系中可能的正畸治疗需求。这表明，在未来5年内，在仅提供正畸治疗的诊所接受治疗的新正畸患者数量可能会急剧下降。最近正畸研究生学习名额的增加，使得此后情况大幅改善的可能性微乎其微。毫无疑问，即使考虑到为满足未来更高治疗标准需求可能需要增加的人力，我们现在培养的正畸专科医生也太多了。
