Day Brett, Mancini Mattia, Bateman Ian J, Binner Amy, Cho Frankie, de Gol Anthony, Ferguson-Gow Henry, Fezzi Carlo, Lee Christopher, Liuzzo Lorena, Lovett Andrew, Owen Nathan, Pearson Richard G, Smith Greg
Land, Environment, Economics and Policy Institute, Department of Economics, University of Exeter Business School, Exeter EX4 4PU, UK.
Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, School of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2024 Jun 10;379(1903):20220327. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0327. Epub 2024 Apr 22.
By embedding a spatially explicit ecosystem services modelling tool within a policy simulator we examine the insights that natural capital analysis can bring to the design of policies for nature recovery. Our study is illustrated through a case example of policies incentivising the establishment of new natural habitat in England. We find that a policy mirroring the current practice of offering payments per hectare of habitat creation fails to break even, delivering less value in improved flows of ecosystem services than public money spent and only 26% of that which is theoretically achievable. Using optimization methods, we discover that progressively more efficient outcomes are delivered by policies that optimally price activities (34%), quantities of environmental change (55%) and ecosystem service value flows (81%). Further, we show that additionally attaining targets for unmonetized ecosystem services (in our case, biodiversity) demands trade-offs in delivery of monetized services. For some policy instruments it is not even possible to achieve the targets. Finally, we establish that extending policy instruments to offer payments for unmonetized services delivers target-achieving and value-maximizing policy designs. Our findings reveal that policy design is of first-order importance in determining the efficiency and efficacy of programmes pursuing nature recovery. This article is part of the theme issue 'Bringing nature into decision-making'.
通过将一个空间明确的生态系统服务建模工具嵌入到政策模拟器中，我们研究了自然资本分析能为自然恢复政策设计带来的见解。我们的研究通过一个激励在英格兰建立新自然栖息地的政策案例进行说明。我们发现，一项效仿当前按每公顷栖息地创建面积支付费用做法的政策无法实现收支平衡，在改善生态系统服务流量方面带来的价值低于所花费的公共资金，仅为理论可实现价值的26%。使用优化方法，我们发现，通过对活动进行最优定价（34%）、对环境变化量进行最优定价（55%）以及对生态系统服务价值流进行最优定价（81%）的政策，能实现效率逐步提高的结果。此外，我们表明，要额外实现未货币化生态系统服务（在我们的案例中是生物多样性）的目标，需要在货币化服务的提供上进行权衡。对于一些政策工具来说，甚至不可能实现这些目标。最后，我们确定，扩展政策工具以对未货币化服务进行支付能带来实现目标且价值最大化的政策设计。我们的研究结果表明，政策设计对于追求自然恢复的项目的效率和成效至关重要。本文是“将自然纳入决策”主题特刊的一部分。
