School of Ocean Sciences, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China.
Guangxi Institute of Geological Exploration, China Chemical Geology and Mine Bureau, Nanning 530001, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2024 Mar 18;35(3):669-677. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202403.024.
As one of the important blue carbon pools in tropical and subtropical intertidal zones, mangroves are widely distributed along the coast of Guangxi in China. To deeply explore the variations of potential suitable habitats for mangroves in China under the background of climate change, based on remote sensing interpretation data of coastal wetlands in Guangxi, global marine environment and bioclimatic environment data in 2021, we constructed a maximum entropy habitat distribution model to simulate the spatial distribution of potential suitable areas for mangroves and the invasive species, along the coast of Guangxi, and predicted the patterns under extreme climate change scenarios (SSP5-8.5). The results showed that the interpreted area of mangrove forests along the coastline of Guangxi was 9136.7 hm in 2021, while the predicted area of potential suitable habitat area was 55955.9 hm. Current distribution area of mangroves had basically covered its potential high suitability area and nearly 10% of the moderate suitability area. The current area of was 1320.4 hm, and the predicted area of potential high suitability area was twice of current area, indicating that there was still a large proportion of high suitability area that was not occupied by . The most important environmental factors driving the distribution of potential habitats in mangroves were offshore Euclidean distance (62.2%), terrain deviation index (8.7%), average sea surface temperature in the hottest season (6.1%), and seabed terrain elevation (5.6%). The contribution of geographical conditions on mangrove distribution was predominant. Under the climate change scenario (SSP5-8.5), potential suitable area for mangroves would increase by 5.3%, while that for would decrease by 3.1%. The overlapping proportion of the potential suitable area for mangroves and was similar under current and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, being 15.2% and 14.5%, respectively. In the future, it is necessary to strengthen the protection and ecological restoration of mangroves along the coast of Guangxi and there is great challenge for preventing further invasion of .
作为热带和亚热带潮间带重要的蓝碳库之一，红树林广泛分布在中国广西沿海。为深入探讨气候变化背景下中国红树林潜在适宜生境的变化，本研究基于广西沿海湿地遥感解译数据、全球海洋环境和生物气候环境数据 2021 年，构建最大熵生境分布模型，模拟广西沿海红树林及其入侵种潜在适宜区的空间分布，并预测极端气候变化情景（SSP5-8.5）下的格局。结果表明，2021 年广西沿海红树林林带的解译面积为 9136.7 hm，潜在适宜生境区预测面积为 55955.9 hm。目前红树林的分布区基本覆盖了其潜在的高适宜区和近 10%的中适宜区。目前面积为 1320.4 hm，潜在高适宜区预测面积是目前面积的两倍，表明仍有较大比例的高适宜区未被 占据。驱动红树林潜在生境分布的最重要环境因素是离海岸线的欧几里得距离（62.2%）、地形偏离指数（8.7%）、最热季节平均海面温度（6.1%）和海底地形高程（5.6%）。地理条件对红树林分布的贡献占主导地位。在气候变化情景（SSP5-8.5）下，红树林潜在适宜区将增加 5.3%，而 则减少 3.1%。在当前和 SSP5-8.5 情景下，红树林和 的潜在适宜区重叠比例相似，分别为 15.2%和 14.5%。未来需要加强广西沿海红树林的保护和生态修复，防止 进一步入侵的挑战巨大。
