School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, People's Republic of China.
College of Education and Human Services, Central Michigan University, Mt Pleasant, MI, USA.
Environ Monit Assess. 2024 Apr 26;196(5):479. doi: 10.1007/s10661-024-12609-y.
This research investigates the long-term determinants of carbon emissions in three diverse regions-Europe and Central Asia (ECA), Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)-spanning 1990 to 2020. Utilizing advanced econometric models and analyses, including the Regularized Common Correlated Effects Estimator (rCCE), Common Correlated Effects Estimator (CCE), and Mean-Group (MG) approach, the study explores the intricate relationships between carbon emissions, crop production, emissions per agricultural production, energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, per capita GDP, and population. Region-specific nuances are uncovered, highlighting the varying dynamics: ECA exhibits intricate and non-significant relationships, SSA showcases significant effects of population dynamics and green technology adoption, and the MENA region reveals a nuanced interplay between emissions per agricultural production.The findings underscore the universal efficacy of green technology adoption for mitigation. Strategies for mitigating carbon emissions in the agricultural sector require diversified energy transition approaches, emphasizing efficiency enhancements, green technology adoption, and tailored population management strategies based on regional intricacies. Counterfactual simulations indicate the potential efficacy of strategic measures targeting crop production to reduce carbon emissions, while acknowledging the nuanced relationship between economic growth and emissions. Policymakers are urged to recognize the persistence in emission patterns, emphasizing the importance of targeted interventions to transition towards more sustainable trajectories. Overall, the research provides essential insights for crafting effective policies at both regional and global scales to address the complexities of climate change mitigation in the agricultural sector.
本研究考察了三个不同地区——欧洲和中亚（ECA）、撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）和中东和北非（MENA）——1990 年至 2020 年期间的碳排放量的长期决定因素。利用先进的计量经济学模型和分析方法，包括正则化共同相关效应估计量（rCCE）、共同相关效应估计量（CCE）和均值组（MG）方法，本研究探讨了碳排放量、作物产量、农业生产每单位排放量、能源消耗、可再生能源消耗、人均 GDP 和人口之间的复杂关系。研究揭示了区域特定的细微差别，突出了不同的动态：ECA 呈现出复杂且无显著关系，SSA 展示了人口动态和绿色技术采用的显著影响，而 MENA 地区则揭示了农业生产每单位排放量之间的微妙相互作用。研究结果强调了绿色技术采用对于减排的普遍有效性。农业部门减少碳排放的策略需要多样化的能源转型方法，强调提高效率、采用绿色技术以及根据区域复杂性制定量身定制的人口管理策略。反事实模拟表明，针对作物生产的战略措施具有降低碳排放的潜在效果，同时承认经济增长与排放之间的复杂关系。研究呼吁政策制定者认识到排放模式的持久性，强调有针对性的干预措施对于向更可持续的轨迹转型的重要性。总的来说，本研究为制定有效的区域和全球政策提供了重要的见解，以应对农业部门缓解气候变化的复杂性。
