Rebound Inverts the Bacteremia Prevention Effect of Antibiotic Based Decontamination Interventions in ICU Cohorts with Prolonged Length of Stay.

Could rebound explain the paradoxical lack of prevention effect against blood stream infections (BSIs) with antibiotic-based decontamination intervention (BDI) methods among studies of ICU patients within the literature? Two meta-regression models were applied, each versus the group mean length of stay (LOS). Firstly, the prevention effects against BSI [and VAP] among 136 studies of antibiotic-BDI versus other interventions were analyzed. Secondly, the BSI [and VAP] incidence in 268 control and intervention cohorts from studies of antibiotic-BDI versus that among 165 observational cohorts as a benchmark was modelled. In model one, the meta-regression line versus group mean LOS crossed the null, with the antibiotic-BDI prevention effect against BSI at mean LOS day 7 (OR 0.45; 0.30 to 0.68) inverted at mean LOS day 20 (OR 1.7; 1.1 to 2.6). In model two, the meta-regression line versus group mean LOS crossed the benchmark line, and the predicted BSI incidence for antibiotic-BDI groups was 0.47; 0.09-0.84 percentage points below versus 3.0; 0.12-5.9 above the benchmark in studies with 7 versus 20 days mean LOS, respectively. Rebound within the intervention groups attenuated and inverted the prevention effect of antibiotic-BDI against VAP and BSI, respectively. This explains the paradoxical findings.