Huang Qiangru, Sun Yanxia, Jia Mengmeng, Jiang Mingyue, Xu Yunshao, Feng Luzhao, Yang Weizhong
School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100730, China.
National Institute of Pathogen Biology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100730, China.
Infect Dis Model. 2024 Apr 16;9(3):805-815. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2024.04.004. eCollection 2024 Sep.
The ongoing transmission of mpox in specific countries and regions necessitates urgent action. It is essential to implement targeted containment strategies that concentrate on high-risk populations and critical locations, such as college campuses, to effectively curb the spread of mpox. This study is dedicated to evaluating the performance of various vaccination and quarantine strategies in curbing the spread of mpox and estimating the outbreak risk. To accomplish this, we constructed a stochastic, agent-based, discrete-time susceptible-latent-infectious-recovered (SLIR) model, to examine mpox transmission on a simulated college campus. Our findings reveal that relying solely on PEP is insufficient in containing mpox effectively. To bolster the population immunity and protect the vulnerable, pre-exposure vaccination among high-risk populations prior to an outbreak is imperative. Our study demonstrates that a pre-exposure vaccination rate of 50% in high-risk populations can led to a remarkable 74.2% reduction of infections. This translated to a mere 1.0% cumulative infection incidence in the overall population. In cases where the desired vaccination coverage is not attainable, enhancing case detection and isolation measures can serve as an effective emergency response to contain mpox outbreaks. For pre-exposure vaccination coverage of 20% or lower, a 40% isolation ratio is necessary to keep the cumulative number of infections in check. However, when the coverage exceeds 30%, a reduced isolation ratio of 20% becomes sufficient to manage the outbreak effectively. These insights underscore the importance of strategic pre-exposure vaccination in conjunction with robust surveillance and isolation protocols to safeguard public health and prevent the escalation of mpox outbreaks.
猴痘在特定国家和地区的持续传播需要采取紧急行动。实施有针对性的控制策略至关重要，这些策略应集中于高风险人群和关键场所，如大学校园，以有效遏制猴痘的传播。本研究致力于评估各种疫苗接种和检疫策略在遏制猴痘传播方面的效果，并估计疫情爆发风险。为此，我们构建了一个基于主体的离散时间随机易感-潜伏-感染-康复（SLIR）模型，以研究模拟大学校园中猴痘的传播情况。我们的研究结果表明，仅依靠暴露后预防（PEP）不足以有效控制猴痘。为增强人群免疫力并保护弱势群体，在疫情爆发前对高风险人群进行暴露前疫苗接种势在必行。我们的研究表明，高风险人群中50%的暴露前疫苗接种率可使感染率显著降低74.2%。这使得总体人群中的累计感染发病率仅为1.0%。在无法实现所需疫苗接种覆盖率的情况下，加强病例检测和隔离措施可作为控制猴痘疫情的有效应急反应。对于暴露前疫苗接种覆盖率为20%或更低的情况，需要40%的隔离率来控制感染累计数量。然而，当覆盖率超过30%时，20%的较低隔离率就足以有效控制疫情。这些见解强调了战略性暴露前疫苗接种与强有力的监测和隔离方案相结合对于保障公众健康和防止猴痘疫情升级的重要性。
