Will a changing climate affect hatching success in cavity-nesting birds: A case study with Eastern Bluebirds ()?

A significant body of evidence indicates that climate change is influencing many aspects of avian ecology. Yet, how climate change is affecting, and is expected to influence some aspects of the breeding ecology of cavity-nesting birds remains uncertain. To explore the potential linkage between timing of first clutch, and the influence of ambient temperature on hatching success, we used Eastern Bluebird () nest records over a nine-year period from Alabama, USA. We investigated changes to annual clutch initiation dates, as well as variability in hatching success associated with ambient air temperatures during the incubation period. Using a simple linear model, we observed earlier annual egg laying dates over the nine years of this study with a difference of 24 days between earliest egg-laying date of the season. Daily temperature minima increased 2 °C across the nine-year time frame of this study. These data also indicate that Eastern Bluebird hatching success was the highest when mean ambient air temperature during incubation was between 19 °C and 24 °C (78%, as opposed to 69% and 68% above and below this temperature range, respectively). Our findings of increasing maxima, earlier maxima each year, and the lower minima of temperatures within our study area could expand the breadth of temperatures experienced by nesting Eastern Bluebirds possibly exposing them to temperatures outside of what promotes nesting success. These findings with a cavity-nesting bird highlight an optimal range of ambient temperatures associated with highest hatching success, conditions likely to be affected by climate change.