A general consensus persists that sensory-perceptual differences in autism, such as hypersensitivities to light or sound, result from an overreliance on new (rather than prior) sensory observations. However, conflicting Bayesian accounts of autism remain unresolved as to whether such alterations are caused by more precise sensory observations (precise likelihood model) or by forming a less precise model of the sensory context (hypo-priors model). We used a decision-under-uncertainty paradigm that manipulated uncertainty in both likelihoods and priors. Contrary to model predictions we found no differences in reliance on likelihood in autistic group (AS) compared to neurotypicals (NT) and found no differences in subjective prior variance between groups. However, we found reduced context adjustment in the AS group compared to NT. Further, the AS group showed heightened variability in their relative weighting of sensory information (vs. prior) on a trial-by-trial basis. When participants were aligned on a continuum of autistic traits, we found no associations with likelihood reliance or prior variance but found an increase in likelihood precision with autistic traits. These findings together provide empirical evidence for intact priors, precise likelihood, reduced context updating and heightened variability during sensory learning in autism.