Kim Minho, Barnett-Neefs Cecil, Chavez Ruben A, Kealey Erin, Wiedmann Martin, Stasiewicz Matthew J
Dept. of Food Science and Human Nutrition, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 905 S Goodwin Ave., Urbana, IL 61801, USA.
Dept. of Food Science, Cornell University, 341 Stocking Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA.
J Food Prot. 2024 Jul;87(7):100304. doi: 10.1016/j.jfp.2024.100304. Epub 2024 May 20.
Salmonella prevalence declined in U.S. raw poultry products since adopting prevalence-based Salmonella performance standards, but human illnesses did not reduce proportionally. We used Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) to evaluate public health risks of raw chicken parts contaminated with different levels of all Salmonella and specific high- and low-virulence serotypes. Lognormal Salmonella level distributions were fitted to 2012 USDA-FSIS Baseline parts survey and 2023 USDA-FSIS HACCP verification sampling data. Three different Dose-Response (DR) approaches included (i) a single DR for all serotypes, (ii) DR that reduces Salmonella Kentucky ST152 virulence, and (iii) multiple serotype-specific DR models. All scenarios found risk concentrated in the few products with high Salmonella levels. Using a single DR model with Baseline data (μ = -3.19, σ = 1.29 Log CFU/g), 68% and 37% of illnesses were attributed to the 0.7% and 0.06% of products with >1 and >10 CFU/g Salmonella, respectively. Using distributions from 2023 HACCP data (μ = -5.53, σ = 2.45), 99.8% and 99.0% of illnesses were attributed to the 1.3% and 0.4% of products with >1 and >10 CFU/g Salmonella, respectively. Scenarios with serotype-specific DR models showed more concentrated risk at higher levels. Baseline data showed 92% and 67% and HACCP data showed >99.99% and 99.96% of illnesses attributed to products with >1 and >10 CFU/g Salmonella, respectively. Regarding serotypes using Baseline or HACCP input data, 0.002% and 0.1% of illnesses were attributed to the 0.2% and 0.4% of products with >1 CFU/g of Kentucky ST152, respectively, while 69% and 83% of illnesses were attributed to the 0.3% and 0.6% of products with >1 CFU/g of Enteritidis, Infantis, or Typhimurium, respectively. Therefore, public health risk in chicken parts is concentrated in finished products with high levels and specifically high levels of high-virulence serotypes. Low-virulence serotypes like Kentucky contribute few human cases.
自采用基于流行率的沙门氏菌性能标准以来，美国生禽产品中沙门氏菌的流行率有所下降，但人类疾病并未成比例减少。我们使用定量微生物风险评估（QMRA）来评估受不同水平的所有沙门氏菌以及特定高毒力和低毒力血清型污染的生鸡肉部位的公共卫生风险。对数正态沙门氏菌水平分布被拟合到2012年美国农业部食品安全检验局（USDA-FSIS）基线部位调查和2023年USDA-FSIS危害分析与关键控制点（HACCP）验证抽样数据。三种不同的剂量反应（DR）方法包括：（i）所有血清型的单一DR；（ii）降低肯塔基沙门氏菌ST152毒力的DR；（iii）多种血清型特异性DR模型。所有情景都发现风险集中在少数沙门氏菌水平高的产品中。使用带有基线数据（μ = -3.19，σ = 1.29 Log CFU/g）的单一DR模型，分别有68%和37%的疾病归因于沙门氏菌含量>1 CFU/g和>10 CFU/g的0.7%和0.06%的产品。使用2023年HACCP数据的分布（μ = -5.53，σ = 2.45），分别有99.8%和99.0%的疾病归因于沙门氏菌含量>1 CFU/g和>10 CFU/g的1.3%和0.4%的产品。具有血清型特异性DR模型的情景在较高水平显示出更集中的风险。基线数据显示，分别有92%和67%的疾病以及HACCP数据显示>99.99%和99.96%的疾病归因于沙门氏菌含量>1 CFU/g和>10 CFU/g的产品。关于使用基线或HACCP输入数据的血清型，分别有0.002%和0.1%的疾病归因于肯塔基沙门氏菌ST152含量>1 CFU/g的0.2%和0.4%的产品，而分别有69%和83%的疾病归因于肠炎沙门氏菌、婴儿沙门氏菌或鼠伤寒沙门氏菌含量>1 CFU/g的0.3%和0.6%的产品。因此，鸡肉部位的公共卫生风险集中在高水平的成品中，特别是高毒力血清型的高水平产品。像肯塔基这样的低毒力血清型导致的人类病例很少。
