Sir Harry Solomon School of Economics and Management, Western Galilee College, Acre, Israel.
Department of Mathematics, Bar Ilan University, Ramat Gan, Israel.
PLoS One. 2024 May 29;19(5):e0299574. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0299574. eCollection 2024.
We propose a new approach to estimate the vaccination rates required to achieve herd immunity against SARS-COV2 virus at a city level. Based on information obtained from the Israeli Ministry of Health, we estimate two separate quadratic models, one for each dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA Pfizer vaccine. The dependent variable is the scope of morbidity, expressed as the number of cases per 10,000 persons. The independent variables are the first and second vaccination rates and their squares. The outcomes corroborate that herd immunity is achieved in the case that 71 percent of the urban population is vaccinated, and the minimum anticipated scope of morbidity is approximately 5 active COVID-19 cases per 10,000 persons, compared to 53-67 cases per 10,000 persons for zero vaccination rate. Findings emphasize the importance of vaccinations and demonstrate that urban herd immunity may be defined as a situation in which people continue to interact, yet the COVID-19 spread is contained. This, in turn, might prevent the need for lockdowns or other limitations at the city level.
我们提出了一种新方法来估计在城市层面上达到 SARS-COV2 病毒群体免疫所需的疫苗接种率。基于从以色列卫生部获得的信息，我们估计了两种单独的二次模型，一种针对 BNT162b2 mRNA 辉瑞疫苗的第一剂，另一种针对第二剂。因变量是发病率范围，以每 10000 人中有多少病例表示。自变量是第一剂和第二剂疫苗接种率及其平方。结果证实，如果城市人口中有 71%的人接种了疫苗，那么就可以实现群体免疫，预计最低发病率范围约为每 10000 人中有 5 例活动性 COVID-19 病例，而零接种率的发病率范围为每 10000 人中有 53-67 例。这些发现强调了疫苗接种的重要性，并表明城市群体免疫可以定义为人们继续互动，但 COVID-19 传播得到控制的情况。这反过来又可能防止城市层面需要封锁或其他限制。
