Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, India.
International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology, Nairobi, Kenya.
Int J Biometeorol. 2024 Sep;68(9):1871-1884. doi: 10.1007/s00484-024-02715-4. Epub 2024 May 30.
The Fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda is the most notorious invasive pest species on maize, recently reported in India. The continuous spread of Fall armyworms to new ecological niches raises global concern. The current study is the first in India to forecast the suitability of a habitat for S. frugiperda using a maximum entropy algorithm. Predictions were made based on an analysis of the relationship between 109 occurrence records of S. frugiperda and pertinent historical, current, and predicted climatic data for the study area. The model indicated that S. frugiperda could thrive in different habitats under the current environmental circumstances, particularly in the west and south Indian states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka. The model predicted that areas with higher latitudes, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal, and some portions of Telangana, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh, as well as some tracts of northeastern states like Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, would have highly climate-suitable conditions for S. frugiperda to occur in the future. The average AUC value was 0.852, which indicates excellent accuracy of the prediction. A Jackknife test of variables indicated that isothermality with the highest gain value was determining the potential geographic distribution of S. frugiperda. Our results will be useful for serving as an early warning tool to guide decision-making and prevent further spread toward new areas in India.
秋黏虫（Spodoptera frugiperda）是玉米上最臭名昭著的入侵性害虫物种，最近在印度被报道。秋黏虫不断向新的生态位扩散，引起了全球的关注。本研究首次在印度使用最大熵算法预测 S. frugiperda 的栖息地适宜性。预测是基于对 S. frugiperda 的 109 个发生记录与研究区域的相关历史、当前和预测气候数据之间关系的分析做出的。该模型表明，S. frugiperda 在当前环境条件下可以在不同的栖息地中茁壮成长，特别是在印度西部和南部的马哈拉施特拉邦、泰米尔纳德邦和卡纳塔克邦等邦。该模型预测，纬度较高的地区，特别是北方邦、奥里萨邦、西孟加拉邦和泰伦加纳邦的一些地区、拉贾斯坦邦、恰蒂斯加尔邦和中央邦，以及阿萨姆邦和阿鲁纳恰尔邦等东北部邦的一些地区，未来将有非常适宜 S. frugiperda 发生的气候条件。平均 AUC 值为 0.852，表明预测的准确性非常高。变量的 Jackknife 测试表明，同温性具有最高的增益值，决定了 S. frugiperda 的潜在地理分布。我们的研究结果将有助于作为预警工具，指导决策，防止其在印度向新地区进一步扩散。
