血清乳酸脱氢酶升高有助于预测人免疫缺陷病毒阴性的肺孢子菌肺炎患者的死亡率——临床风险评分的推导。
Elevated serum lactate dehydrogenase aids prediction of mortality in Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia without underlying human immunodeficiency virus infection - Derivation of a clinical risk score.
机构信息
Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, National University Health System, Singapore.
Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, National University Health System, Singapore.
出版信息
J Infect Public Health. 2024 Jul;17(7):102439. doi: 10.1016/j.jiph.2024.04.023. Epub 2024 Apr 26.
Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PCP) is associated with significant mortality amongst patients without underlying human immunodeficiency virus infection (HIV). We sought to develop a risk score to predict mortality in this population. We reviewed patients with a presumed or confirmed PCP and a negative HIV test from 2006-2023. We constructed a multivariable model to identify parameters independently associated with mortality and the adjusted odds ratios were converted to weights to derive a risk score. Subsequently, we compared the performance of our score to the CURB-65 score by means of area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). In total, we examined 93 patients with PCP without HIV. Mortality was 31.2%. Risk factors for mortality included older age, male sex and high serum lactate dehydrogenase levels (LDH) and C-reactive protein levels. A risk score was derived comprising age> 65 years (2 points), male sex (2 points) and LDH> 770 U/L (3 points). Our risk score (AUC 0.71, 95%CI 0.60-0.82) performed better than the CURB-65 score (AUC 0.53, 95%CI 0.41-0.66). A low-risk score of 0-1 had excellent negative predictive value for mortality (97.5%). In conclusion, a risk score comprising age, sex and LDH can predict mortality in PCP without underlying HIV and help with prognostication.
卡氏肺孢子虫肺炎(PCP)与无潜在人类免疫缺陷病毒感染(HIV)的患者的死亡率显著相关。我们试图开发一种风险评分来预测该人群的死亡率。我们回顾了 2006 年至 2023 年期间患有疑似或确诊的 PCP 且 HIV 检测阴性的患者。我们构建了一个多变量模型来确定与死亡率独立相关的参数,并将调整后的优势比转换为权重,以得出风险评分。随后,我们通过接收者操作特征曲线(AUC)下的面积比较了我们的评分与 CURB-65 评分的性能。总共检查了 93 名无 HIV 的 PCP 患者。死亡率为 31.2%。死亡的危险因素包括年龄较大、男性、高血清乳酸脱氢酶(LDH)和 C 反应蛋白(CRP)水平。由此得出的风险评分包括年龄>65 岁(2 分)、男性(2 分)和 LDH>770 U/L(3 分)。我们的风险评分(AUC 0.71,95%CI 0.60-0.82)优于 CURB-65 评分(AUC 0.53,95%CI 0.41-0.66)。低风险评分(0-1)对死亡率具有极好的阴性预测值(97.5%)。总之,一个包含年龄、性别和 LDH 的风险评分可以预测无潜在 HIV 的 PCP 患者的死亡率,并有助于预后。