Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China; State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LASW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS), China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China.
State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LASW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS), China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2024 Aug 25;940:173612. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173612. Epub 2024 May 31.
Numerous studies have examined the impact of temperature on mortality, yet research on the combined effect of temperature and humidity on non-accidental deaths remains limited. This study investigates the synergistic impact of high temperature and humidity on non-accidental deaths in China, assessing the influence of urban development and urbanization level. Utilizing the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) of quasi-Poisson regression, we analyzed the relationship between Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) and non-accidental deaths in 30 Chinese cities from 2010 to 2016, including Guangzhou during 2012-2016. We stratified temperature and humidity across these cities to evaluate the influence of varying humidity levels on deaths under high temperatures. Then, we graded the duration of heat and humidity in these cities to assess the impact of deaths with different durations. Additionally, the cities were categorized based on gross domestic product (GDP), and a vulnerability index was calculated to examine the impact of urban development and urbanization level on non-accidental deaths. Our findings reveal a pronounced synergistic effect of high temperature and humidity on non-accidental deaths, particularly at elevated humidity levels. The synergies of high temperature and humidity are extremely complex. Moreover, the longer the duration of high temperature and humidity, the higher the risk of non-accidental death. Furthermore, areas with higher urbanization exhibited lower relative risks (RR) associated with the synergistic effects of heat and humidity. Consequently, it is imperative to focus on damp-heat related mortality among vulnerable populations in less developed regions.
许多研究都考察了温度对死亡率的影响，但有关温度和湿度对非意外死亡综合影响的研究仍然有限。本研究调查了高温和高湿度对中国非意外死亡的协同影响，评估了城市发展和城市化水平的影响。利用准泊松回归的分布滞后非线性模型（DLNM），我们分析了 2010 年至 2016 年中国 30 个城市的湿球黑球温度（WBGT）与非意外死亡之间的关系，包括 2012 年至 2016 年的广州。我们对这些城市的温度和湿度进行分层，以评估不同湿度水平对高温下死亡的影响。然后，我们对这些城市的热和湿度持续时间进行分级，以评估不同持续时间的死亡的影响。此外，根据国内生产总值（GDP）对城市进行分类，并计算脆弱性指数，以检验城市发展和城市化水平对非意外死亡的影响。我们的研究结果表明，高温和高湿度对非意外死亡有明显的协同作用，特别是在湿度较高的情况下。高温和高湿度的协同作用非常复杂。此外，高温和高湿度持续时间越长，非意外死亡的风险就越高。此外，城市化程度较高的地区与热和湿度协同作用相关的相对风险（RR）较低。因此，必须关注欠发达地区脆弱人群与湿热相关的死亡率。
