Use of rumination time in health risk assessment of prepartum dairy cows.

The objectives of this observational cohort study were to evaluate the associations of rumination time (RT) in the last week of pregnancy with transition cow metabolism, inflammation, health, and subsequent milk production, reproduction, and culling. Pregnant nulliparous (n = 199) and parous (n = 337) cows were enrolled 21 d before expected calving. Rumination time and physical activity were monitored automatically by sensors from d -21 to 15 relative to calving. Blood samples were collected on d -14, -5, 4, 8, and 12 ± 1 relative to calving. Diagnoses of clinical health problems were performed by researchers from calving to 15 DIM. In classification 1, cows were ranked based on average daily RT in the last week of pregnancy and classified into terciles as short RT (SRT), moderate RT (MRT), or long RT (LRT) for association analyses. In classification 2, RT deviation from the parity average was used in a receiver operating characteristic curve to identify the best threshold to predict postpartum clinical disease. Cows were then classified as above the threshold (AT) or below the threshold (BT). Compared with cows with LRT, cows with SRT had greater serum concentrations of nonesterified fatty acids (0.47 vs. 0.40 ± 0.01 mmol/L), BHB (0.58 vs. 0.52 ± 0.01 mmol/L), and haptoglobin (0.22 vs. 0.18 ± 0.008 g/L) throughout the transition period, and reduced concentrations of glucose, cholesterol, albumin, and magnesium in a time-dependent manner. Parous cows with SRT had higher odds of postpartum clinical disease (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 3.7; 95% CI: 2.1-6.4), lower odds of pregnancy by 210 DIM (AOR = 0.34; 95% CI = 0.15-0.75), and lower milk production (46.9 vs. 48.6 ± 0.5 kg/d) than parous cows with LRT. Deviation in prepartum RT had good predictive value for clinical disease in parous cows (area under the curve = 0.65; 95% CI = 0.60-0.71) but not in nulliparous (area under the curve = 0.51; 95% CI = 0.42-0.59). Separation of parous cows according to the identified threshold (≤-53 min from the parity average) resulted in differences in serum concentrations of nonesterified fatty acids (AT = 0.31 ± 0.006, BT = 0.38 ± 0.014 mmol/L), BHB (AT = 0.49 ± 0.008, BT = 0.53 ± 0.015 mmol/L), and globulin (AT = 32.3 ± 0.3, BT = 34.8 ± 0.5 g/L) throughout the transition period, as well as in serum cholesterol, urea, magnesium, albumin, and haptoglobin in a time-dependent manner. Below threshold parous cows had higher odds of clinical disease (AOR = 3.7; 95% CI = 2.1-6.4), reduced hazard of pregnancy (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.47-0.89), greater hazard of culling (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.2-3.6), and lower milk production (46.3 ± 0.7 vs. 48.5 ± 0.3 kg/d). External validation using data from 153 parous cows from a different herd and the established threshold in RT deviation (≤-53 min) resulted in similar predictive value, with the odds of postpartum disease 2.4 times greater in BT than AT (37.5% vs. 20.1%). In conclusion, RT in the week preceding calving was a reasonable predictor of postpartum health and future milk production, reproduction, and culling in parous cows but not in nulliparous cows.