Department of Psychology, University of Jyväskylä, 40014, Jyväskylä, Finland.
Faculty of Information Technology, University of Jyväskylä, 40014, Jyväskylä, Finland.
Sci Rep. 2024 Jun 5;14(1):12956. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-63629-0.
Education plays a pivotal role in alleviating poverty, driving economic growth, and empowering individuals, thereby significantly influencing societal and personal development. However, the persistent issue of school dropout poses a significant challenge, with its effects extending beyond the individual. While previous research has employed machine learning for dropout classification, these studies often suffer from a short-term focus, relying on data collected only a few years into the study period. This study expanded the modeling horizon by utilizing a 13-year longitudinal dataset, encompassing data from kindergarten to Grade 9. Our methodology incorporated a comprehensive range of parameters, including students' academic and cognitive skills, motivation, behavior, well-being, and officially recorded dropout data. The machine learning models developed in this study demonstrated notable classification ability, achieving a mean area under the curve (AUC) of 0.61 with data up to Grade 6 and an improved AUC of 0.65 with data up to Grade 9. Further data collection and independent correlational and causal analyses are crucial. In future iterations, such models may have the potential to proactively support educators' processes and existing protocols for identifying at-risk students, thereby potentially aiding in the reinvention of student retention and success strategies and ultimately contributing to improved educational outcomes.
教育在减轻贫困、推动经济增长和赋权个人方面发挥着关键作用，从而对社会和个人发展产生重大影响。然而，辍学问题一直存在，其影响不仅局限于个人。虽然先前的研究已经将机器学习应用于辍学分类，但这些研究往往存在短期关注的问题，仅依赖于研究期间仅几年的数据。本研究通过使用长达 13 年的纵向数据集，将建模范围扩大到了幼儿园到 9 年级，从而解决了这个问题。该数据集包含了学生的学术和认知技能、动机、行为、幸福感以及官方记录的辍学数据等综合参数。本研究中开发的机器学习模型表现出了显著的分类能力，在使用截至 6 年级的数据时，平均曲线下面积（AUC）为 0.61，在使用截至 9 年级的数据时，AUC 提高到了 0.65。进一步的数据收集以及独立的相关性和因果分析至关重要。在未来的迭代中，这些模型可能有潜力主动支持教育工作者识别风险学生的流程和现有协议，从而有可能帮助重新制定学生留级和成功策略，并最终有助于提高教育成果。
