A Novel Method for Full-Section Assessment of High-Speed Railway Subgrade Compaction Quality Based on ML-Interval Prediction Theory.

The high-speed railway subgrade compaction quality is controlled by the compaction degree (), with the maximum dry density () serving as a crucial indicator for its calculation. The current mechanisms and methods for determining the still suffer from uncertainties, inefficiencies, and lack of intelligence. These deficiencies can lead to insufficient assessments for the high-speed railway subgrade compaction quality, further impacting the operational safety of high-speed railways. In this paper, a novel method for full-section assessment of high-speed railway subgrade compaction quality based on ML-interval prediction theory is proposed. Firstly, based on indoor vibration compaction tests, a method for determining the based on the dynamic stiffness turning point is proposed. Secondly, the Pso-OptimalML-Adaboost (POA) model for predicting is determined based on three typical machine learning (ML) algorithms, which are back propagation neural network (BPNN), support vector regression (SVR) and random forest (RF). Thirdly, the interval prediction theory is introduced to quantify the uncertainty in prediction. Finally, based on the Bootstrap-POA-ANN interval prediction model and spatial interpolation algorithms, the interval distribution of across the full-section can be determined, and a model for full-section assessment of compaction quality is developed based on the compaction standard (95%). Moreover, the proposed method is applied to determine the optimal compaction thicknesses (), within the station subgrade test section in the southwest region. The results indicate that: (1) The PSO-BPNN-AdaBoost model performs better in the accuracy and error metrics, which is selected as the POA model for predicting . (2) The Bootstrap-POA-ANN interval prediction model for can construct clear and reliable prediction intervals. (3) The model for full-section assessment of compaction quality can provide the full-section distribution interval for . Comparing the of 5060 cm and 6070 cm, the compaction quality is better with the of 40~50 cm. The research findings can provide effective techniques for assessing the compaction quality of high-speed railway subgrades.