Bian Rui, Zhao An-Zhou, Liu Xian-Feng, Xu Rui-Hao, Li Zi-Yang
School of Mining and Geomatics, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056038, China.
School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710119, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2024 Jun 8;45(6):3260-3269. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202306233.
It is important to study the impact of land use change on terrestrial ecosystem carbon stocks in urban agglomerations for the optimization of land use structure and sustainable development in urban agglomerations. Based on the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model, a simulation was developed that predicted the land use change and carbon stock of the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration in 2040 under different scenarios and further analyzed the impact of land use change on carbon stock. The results showed that:① The land use types of the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration were mainly cultivated land, forest land, and grassland, which accounted for more than 90 % of the total study area. ② From 2000 to 2020, the carbon stock in the Guanzhong Plain showed a continuous downward trend, with cropland, woodland, and grassland being the main sources of carbon stock in the Guanzhong Plain, and the overall carbon stock declined by 15.12×10 t, with the spatial distribution presenting the distribution characteristics of "high in the north and south and low in the middle." ③ By 2040, the carbon stock would decrease the most under the urban development scenario, with a total reduction of 27.08×10 t, and the least under the ecological development scenario, with a total reduction of 4.14×10t. The research results can provide data support for the high-quality development and rational land use planning of the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration.
研究土地利用变化对城市群陆地生态系统碳储量的影响，对于优化城市群土地利用结构和可持续发展具有重要意义。基于斑块生成土地利用模拟（PLUS）模型和生态系统服务与权衡综合评估（InVEST）模型，开展了一项模拟研究，预测了关中平原城市群在不同情景下2040年的土地利用变化和碳储量，并进一步分析了土地利用变化对碳储量的影响。结果表明：①关中平原城市群的土地利用类型主要为耕地、林地和草地，占研究总面积的90%以上。②2000年至2020年，关中平原碳储量呈持续下降趋势，农田、林地和草地是关中平原碳储量的主要来源，碳储量总体下降了15.12×10t，空间分布呈现“南北高、中间低”的特征。③到2040年，城市发展情景下碳储量减少最多，共减少27.08×10t，生态发展情景下减少最少，共减少4.14×10t。研究结果可为关中平原城市群的高质量发展和合理土地利用规划提供数据支持。
