[Multi-scenario Simulation of Construction Land Expansion and Its Impact on Ecosystem Carbon Storage in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration].

It is of great practical significance for regional sustainable development and ecological construction to quantitatively analyze the impact of construction land expansion on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and to explore the optimization scheme of simulating construction land expansion to improve future ecosystem carbon storage. Based on the land use and cover change (LUCC) and other geospatial data of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration from 2000 to 2020, this study utilized the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and the patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model to assess and analyze the changes in ecosystem carbon stocks and spatial patterns regionally. In this study, we performed linear regression analysis to investigate the relationship between urban land expansion and changes in ecosystem carbon stocks for varying urban land proportion levels during two distinct time intervals, 2000-2010 and 2010-2020, which was conducted at a spatial resolution of 2 km. Three distinct urban land expansion scenarios were subjected to simulation to forecast the prospective land use pattern by 2030. Subsequently, we quantified the ramifications of these scenarios on ecosystem carbon stocks during the period from 2020 to 2030. The results were as follows:① In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, the ecosystem carbon stocks exhibited notable variations over the study period, with values of 2 088.02, 2 106.78, and 2 121.25 Tg recorded for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively, resulting in a cumulative carbon sequestration of 33.23 Tg C during the study duration. It is noteworthy that forest carbon storage emerged as the dominant contributor, with an increase from 1 010.17 Tg in 2000 to 1 136.53 Tg in 2020. Throughout the study period, the spatial distribution of carbon stocks displayed relative stability. Regions characterized by lower carbon content were concentrated in the vicinity of the Bohai Rim region and in proximity to cities such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Shijiazhuang, as well as rural settlements. In contrast, grid units with moderate and high carbon stocks were predominantly situated in the western Taihang Mountain and the northern Yanshan Mountain. Additionally, there was a tendency of increasing carbon stocks in the Taihang Mountain and Yanshan Mountain region, whereas those surrounding major urban centers such as Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, and Tangshan experienced a notable decline in carbon stocks. Such reductions were most pronounced in regions undergoing urban land expansion during the study period. ② In grid units with an urban land proportion exceeding 10% at each level, a strong correlation was observed between urban land expansion and changes in carbon stocks during both the 2000-2010 and 2010-2020 periods. The changes in urban land proportion adequately explained the variations in carbon stocks. However, the explanatory power of urban land on carbon stocks decreased during the 2010-2020 period, indicating that other factors played a more substantial role in influencing carbon stocks during this time. The regression coefficients for both periods exhibited a fluctuating upward trend. In comparison to that during the 2000-2010 period, the impact of urban land expansion on carbon stocks was relatively smaller during 2010-2020, indicating a weakening influence. ③ In light of three distinct development scenarios, namely natural development (Scenario Ⅰ), a 15% reduction in the rate of urban land expansion (Scenario Ⅱ), and a 30% reduction in the rate of urban land expansion (Scenario Ⅲ), the projected ecosystem carbon stocks for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration in the year 2030 were estimated to be 2 129.12, 2 133.55, and 2 139.10 Tg, respectively. These projections indicated an increase of 7.88, 12.30, and 17.85 Tg in comparison to the current carbon stocks. All scenarios demonstrated that the terrestrial ecosystem would play a role of carbon sink, particularly with the greatest carbon sink observed in the scenario with a 30% reduction in urban land expansion. The fit performance between urban land expansion and carbon stock changes during the 2020-2030 period was significantly better than that during the 2000-2010 and 2010-2020 periods, and the regression coefficients showed a fluctuating increase with an increase in urban land proportion. Across grid units with different urban land proportion levels, the regression coefficients exhibited the order of Scenario Ⅰ < Scenario Ⅱ < Scenario Ⅲ. In pursuit of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration should prioritize scenarios with reduced rates of urban land expansion, especially in regions with higher urban land proportions.