Yu Zhi-Lin, Zhao Ming-Song, Gao Ying-Feng, Wang Tao, Zhao Zhi-Dong, Wang Shi-Hang
School of Spatial Information and Surveying and Mapping Engineering, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232001, China.
Key Laboratory of Aviation-aerospace-ground Cooperative Monitoring and Early Warning of Coal Mininginduced Disasters of Anhui Higher Education Institutes, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232001, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2024 Jun 8;45(6):3270-3283. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202306110.
This study aimed to investigate the impact of spatiotemporal changes in land use on ecosystem carbon storage. The study analyzed the spatiotemporal changes in carbon storage in the study area based on land use data from five periods (1985, 1995, 2005, 2015, and 2020) using the InVEST model. The PLUS model was used to predict land use changes in the study area under four different scenarios (natural development, farmland protection, ecological protection, and double protection of farmland and ecology) in 2035, and the ecosystem carbon storage under different scenarios was estimated. The results of the study indicated that the farmland in the area under investigation had been decreasing consistently from 1985 to 2020, with a more rapid rate of change observed between 2015 and 2020. During this period, the overall dynamic attitude towards land use reached 34.62 %. Additionally, the carbon storage in the area showed a decreasing trend over the years, with a decrease of 1.55×10 t from 1985 to 2020. Between 2005 and 2015, the carbon storage showed a decrease of 1.22×10 t, with an average annual decrease of 1.22×10 t. The areas with higher carbon storage were located in the eastern part of the study area, whereas areas with lower carbon storage were found in the central and northwestern parts. Although the proportion of carbon storage in farmland decreased from 66.89 % to 57.73 %, farmland remained the most important carbon pool in the study area. The conversion of other land use types to grassland and forestland was advantageous for increasing ecosystem carbon storage. Finally, the study projected that by 2035, the carbon storage in the natural development scenario, the farmland protection scenario, the ecological protection scenario, and the dual protection scenario would be 81.77×10, 82.45×10, 82.82×10, and 82.51×10 t, respectively.
本研究旨在调查土地利用的时空变化对生态系统碳储量的影响。该研究基于五个时期（1985年、1995年、2005年、2015年和2020年）的土地利用数据，使用InVEST模型分析了研究区域内碳储量的时空变化。利用PLUS模型预测了2035年研究区域在四种不同情景（自然发展、农田保护、生态保护以及农田与生态双重保护）下的土地利用变化，并估算了不同情景下的生态系统碳储量。研究结果表明，研究区域内的农田面积自1985年至2020年持续减少，2015年至2020年期间变化速率更快。在此期间，土地利用的总体动态变化率达到34.62%。此外，该区域的碳储量多年来呈下降趋势，1985年至2020年减少了1.55×10吨。2005年至2015年期间，碳储量减少了1.22×10吨，年均减少1.22×10吨。碳储量较高的区域位于研究区域的东部，而碳储量较低的区域则位于中部和西北部。尽管农田碳储量的占比从66.89%降至57.73%，但农田仍是研究区域内最重要的碳库。其他土地利用类型向草地和林地的转变有利于增加生态系统碳储量。最后，研究预测到2035年，自然发展情景、农田保护情景、生态保护情景和双重保护情景下的碳储量将分别为81.77×10、82.45×10、82.82×10和82.51×10吨。
