College of Grassland Science, Key Laboratory of Grassland Ecosystem (Ministry of Education), Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, China.
Gansu Agricultural University-Massey University Research Centre for Grassland Biodiversity, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, China.
Pest Manag Sci. 2024 Oct;80(10):5233-5243. doi: 10.1002/ps.8250. Epub 2024 Jun 20.
The range of Glires is influenced by human activities and climate change. However, the extent to which human activities and environmental changes have contributed to this relationship remains unclear. We examined alterations in the distribution changes and driving factors of the Himalayan marmot, plateau pika, and plateau zokor on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and a geographical detector (Geodetector).
The MaxEnt model showed that the contribution rates of the human footprint index (HFI) to the distribution patterns of the three types of Glires were 46.70%, 58.70%, and 59.50%, respectively. The Geodetector results showed that the distribution pattern of the Himalayan marmot on the QTP was influenced by altitude and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The distribution patterns for plateau pikas and plateau zokors were driven by HFI and NDVI. Climate has played a substantial role in shaping suitable habitats for these three Glires on the QTP. Their suitable area is expected to decrease over the next 30-50 years, along with their niche breadth and overlap. Future suitable habitats for the three Glires tended to shift toward higher latitudes on the QTP.
These findings underscore the impacts of environmental and human factors on the distribution of the three Glires on the QTP. They have enhanced our understanding of the intricate relationships between Glires niches and environments. This can aid in identifying necessary interventions for developing effective early warning systems and prevention strategies to mitigate Glires infestations and plague epidemics on the QTP. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.
人类活动和气候变化影响了松鼠科的分布范围。然而，人类活动和环境变化在多大程度上导致了这种关系尚不清楚。我们使用最大熵（MaxEnt）模型和地理探测器（Geodetector）研究了青藏高原（QTP）上喜马拉雅旱獭、高原鼠兔和高原鼢鼠分布变化的驱动因素。
MaxEnt 模型表明，人类足迹指数（HFI）对三种松鼠科分布模式的贡献率分别为 46.70%、58.70%和 59.50%。地理探测器的结果表明，喜马拉雅旱獭在青藏高原上的分布模式受海拔和归一化植被指数（NDVI）的影响。高原鼠兔和高原鼢鼠的分布模式受 HFI 和 NDVI 的驱动。气候在塑造这三种松鼠科在青藏高原上适宜栖息地方面发挥了重要作用。在未来 30-50 年内，它们的适宜面积预计将减少，其生态位宽度和重叠度也将减少。未来三种松鼠科在青藏高原上的适宜栖息地有向高纬度转移的趋势。
这些发现强调了环境和人为因素对青藏高原上三种松鼠科分布的影响。它们增强了我们对松鼠科生态位与环境之间复杂关系的理解。这有助于确定必要的干预措施，以建立有效的早期预警系统和预防策略，减轻青藏高原上松鼠科的侵扰和鼠疫流行。© 2024 化学工业学会。
