Decadal-scale time series highlight the role of chronic disturbances in driving ecosystem collapse in the Anthropocene.

Biome degradation characterizes the Anthropocene Epoch, and modern ecology is deeply involved with describing the changes underway. Most research has focused on the role of acute disturbances in causing conspicuous changes in ecosystem structure, which leads to an underappreciation of the chronic effects causing large changes through the cumulative effects of small perturbations over decades. Coral reefs epitomize this trend, because the changes in community structure are profound, yet the data to quantify these effects are usually insufficient to evaluate the relative roles of different disturbance types. Here, four decades of surveys from two coral reefs (9 and 14 m depth) off St. John, US Virgin Islands, are used to quantify the associations of acute and chronic events with the changes in benthic community structure. These reefs profoundly changed over 36 years, with coral death altering species assemblages to depress abundances of the ecologically important coral Orbicella spp. and elevating the coverage of macroalgae and crustose coralline algae/turf/bare space (CTB). Linear mixed models revealed the prominent role of chronic variation in temperature in accounting for changes in coverage of corals, macroalgae, and CTB, with rising temperature associated with increases in coral cover on the deep reef, and declines on the shallow reef. Hurricanes were also associated with declines in coral cover on the shallow reef, and increases on the deep reef. Multivariate analyses revealed strong associations between community structure and temperature, but weaker associations with hurricanes, bleaching, and diseases. These results highlight the overwhelming importance of chronically increasing temperature in altering the benthic community structure of Caribbean reefs.