INTRODUCTION: Lower respiratory tract infections(LRTIs) in adults are complicated by diverse pathogens that challenge traditional detection methods, which are often slow and insensitive. Metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) offers a comprehensive, high-throughput, and unbiased approach to pathogen identification. This retrospective study evaluates the diagnostic efficacy of mNGS compared to conventional microbiological testing (CMT) in LRTIs, aiming to enhance detection accuracy and enable early clinical prediction. METHODS: In our retrospective single-center analysis, 451 patients with suspected LRTIs underwent mNGS testing from July 2020 to July 2023. We assessed the pathogen spectrum and compared the diagnostic efficacy of mNGS to CMT, with clinical comprehensive diagnosis serving as the reference standard. The study analyzed mNGS performance in lung tissue biopsies and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) from cases suspected of lung infection. Patients were stratified into two groups based on clinical outcomes (improvement or mortality), and we compared clinical data and conventional laboratory indices between groups. A predictive model and nomogram for the prognosis of LRTIs were constructed using univariate followed by multivariate logistic regression, with model predictive accuracy evaluated by the area under the ROC curve (AUC). RESULTS: (1) Comparative Analysis of mNGS versus CMT: In a comprehensive analysis of 510 specimens, where 59 cases were concurrently collected from lung tissue biopsies and BALF, the study highlights the diagnostic superiority of mNGS over CMT. Specifically, mNGS demonstrated significantly higher sensitivity and specificity in BALF samples (82.86% vs. 44.42% and 52.00% vs. 21.05%, respectively, p < 0.001) alongside greater positive and negative predictive values (96.71% vs. 79.55% and 15.12% vs. 5.19%, respectively, p < 0.01). Additionally, when comparing simultaneous testing of lung tissue biopsies and BALF, mNGS showed enhanced sensitivity in BALF (84.21% vs. 57.41%), whereas lung tissues offered higher specificity (80.00% vs. 50.00%). (2) Analysis of Infectious Species in Patients from This Study: The study also notes a concerning incidence of lung abscesses and identifies Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), Fusobacterium nucleatum, Mycoplasma pneumoniae, Chlamydia psittaci, and Haemophilus influenzae as the most common pathogens, with Klebsiella pneumoniae emerging as the predominant bacterial culprit. Among herpes viruses, EBV and herpes virus 7 (HHV-7) were most frequently detected, with HHV-7 more prevalent in immunocompromised individuals. (3) Risk Factors for Adverse Prognosis and a Mortality Risk Prediction Model in Patients with LRTIs: We identified key risk factors for poor prognosis in lower respiratory tract infection patients, with significant findings including delayed time to mNGS testing, low lymphocyte percentage, presence of chronic lung disease, multiple comorbidities, false-negative CMT results, and positive herpesvirus affecting patient outcomes. We also developed a nomogram model with good consistency and high accuracy (AUC of 0.825) for predicting mortality risk in these patients, offering a valuable clinical tool for assessing prognosis. CONCLUSION: The study underscores mNGS as a superior tool for lower respiratory tract infection diagnosis, exhibiting higher sensitivity and specificity than traditional methods.