一种纳入白蛋白校正阴离子间隙的动脉瘤性蛛网膜下腔出血患者预后模型。
A prognostic model incorporating the albumin-corrected anion gap in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.
作者信息
Wang Ruoran, Rong Juan, Xu Jianguo, He Min
机构信息
Department of Neurosurgery, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
West China Centre of Excellence for Pancreatitis, Institute of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
出版信息
Front Neurol. 2024 Jun 19;15:1361888. doi: 10.3389/fneur.2024.1361888. eCollection 2024.
BACKGROUND
Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) patients typically have poor prognoses. The anion gap (AG) has been proven to correlate with mortality in various critically ill patients. However, hypoalbuminemia can lead to underestimations of the true anion gap levels. This study was conducted to verify the prognostic value of single AG and albumin-corrected anion gap (ACAG) among aSAH patients.
METHODS
Significant factors in the univariate logistic regression analysis were included in the multivariate logistic regression analysis to explore the risk factors for mortality in aSAH patients and to confirm the independent relationship between ACAG and mortality. The restricted cubic spline (RCS) was used to visually show the relationship between ACAG level and mortality risk of aSAH patients. The predictive model for mortality was developed by incorporating significant factors into the multivariate logistic regression analysis. The prognostic value of ACAG and the developed model was evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC).
RESULTS
Among 710 aSAH patients, a 30-day mortality was observed in 20.3% of the cases. A positive relationship was demonstrated between the ACAG level and mortality in aSAH patients using the RCS curve. The multivariate logistic regression analysis helped discover that only six factors were finally and independently related to mortality of aSAH patients after adjusting for confounding effects, including the Hunt-Hess scale score ( = 0.006), surgical options ( < 0.001), white blood cell count ( < 0.001), serum chloride levels ( = 0.023), ACAG ( = 0.039), and delayed cerebral ischemia ( < 0.001). The AUC values for the AG, albumin, and ACAG in predicting mortality among aSAH patients were 0.606, 0.536, and 0.617, respectively. A logistic regression model, which includes the Hunt-Hess scale score, surgical options, white blood cell count, serum chloride levels, ACAG, and delayed cerebral ischemia, achieved an AUC of 0.911 for predicting mortality.
CONCLUSION
The ACAG is an effective prognostic marker for aSAH patients. A prognostic model incorporating ACAG could help clinicians evaluate the risk of poor outcomes among aSAH patients, thereby facilitating the development of personalized therapeutic strategies.
背景
动脉瘤性蛛网膜下腔出血(aSAH)患者的预后通常较差。阴离子间隙(AG)已被证明与各种危重症患者的死亡率相关。然而,低白蛋白血症可导致对真实阴离子间隙水平的低估。本研究旨在验证单一AG和白蛋白校正阴离子间隙(ACAG)在aSAH患者中的预后价值。
方法
将单因素逻辑回归分析中的显著因素纳入多因素逻辑回归分析,以探讨aSAH患者死亡的危险因素,并确认ACAG与死亡率之间的独立关系。使用受限立方样条(RCS)直观显示ACAG水平与aSAH患者死亡风险之间的关系。通过将显著因素纳入多因素逻辑回归分析来建立死亡率预测模型。通过计算受试者工作特征曲线(AUC)下的面积来评估ACAG和所建立模型的预后价值。
结果
在710例aSAH患者中,观察到20.3%的病例在30天内死亡。使用RCS曲线显示aSAH患者的ACAG水平与死亡率之间存在正相关关系。多因素逻辑回归分析发现,在调整混杂效应后,最终只有六个因素与aSAH患者的死亡率独立相关,包括Hunt-Hess量表评分(=0.006)、手术选择(<0.001)、白细胞计数(<0.001)、血清氯水平(=0.023)、ACAG(=0.039)和迟发性脑缺血(<0.001)。AG、白蛋白和ACAG预测aSAH患者死亡率的AUC值分别为0.606、0.536和0.617。一个包含Hunt-Hess量表评分、手术选择、白细胞计数、血清氯水平、ACAG和迟发性脑缺血的逻辑回归模型在预测死亡率方面的AUC为0.911。
结论
ACAG是aSAH患者有效的预后标志物。纳入ACAG的预后模型可帮助临床医生评估aSAH患者预后不良的风险,从而促进个性化治疗策略的制定。