Plant fire-adaptive traits mediate long-term fire recurrence impact on the potential supply capacity of ecosystem services and their resilience.

Fire-induced changes in vegetation composition due to fire-regime intensification are leading to alterations in ecosystem services that might threaten their future sustainability. Fire recurrence, in particular, could be a key driver shaping ecosystem service resilience in fire-prone ecosystems. This study evaluates the impact of fire recurrence, over twenty-four years, on the potential supply capacity of ten regulating, provisioning, and cultural services selected as critical services by stakeholders and experts. We assessed fire effects in four fire-prone landscapes dominated by species with different functional-traits response to fire (i.e., obligate seeder vs resprouter species). Trends in the potential supply capacity linked to fire recurrence were estimated by applying a supervised classification of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) classes performed using Landsat imagery, associated to an ecosystem service capacity matrix adapted to the local socio-ecological context. In landscapes dominated by seeders, fire recurrence broke off the potential supply capacity of services traditionally associated to mature forest cover (i.e., the predicted probability of a decrease in the potential supply capacity of climate regulation, timber, wood fuel, mushroom production, tourism, landscape aesthetic, and cultural heritage occurred with high fire recurrence). In landscapes dominated by resprouter species, the effect of fire recurrence was partially buffered in the short-term after fire and no substantial differences in trends of change were found (i.e., equal predicted probability in the potential supply capacity of ecosystem services regardless of fire recurrence). We detected two new opportunities for ecosystems service supply associated to fire recurrence: livestock and honey production, especially in sites dominated by seeders. These findings provide valuable information aiming at recovering post-fire ecosystem service potential supply to partially counterbalance the loss in the socio-ecological system. When the main post-fire restoration goal is preserving ecosystem service resilience in fire-prone ecosystems, establishing management strategies focused on promoting resprouter species could aid mitigating the fire-driven loss of their supply capacity.