The shift in the spatiotemporal relationship between supply and demand of ecosystem services and its drivers in China.

In China, over 65% of human activities are concentrated in cities, resulting in a conflict between the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ESs). To alleviate this problem, many cities have adopted eco-friendly development modes, however, the effectiveness of these models in reducing ESs supply-demand conflicts has not been comprehensively reviewed, and the human and natural drivers behind these relationship shifts remain unclear. To bridge this gap, this study analyzed the shifts in the relationships between supply and demand of ESs across China from 2010 to 2020 at a city level, as well as identified the human and natural drivers behind them. Firstly, the InVEST models were integrated with socioeconomic data to evaluate the supply and demand distribution for three pivotal ESs: water yield (WY), habitat quality (HQ), and soil retention (SR). Then, a four-quadrant diagram approach was proposed to enhance the analysis of their spatiotemporal relationships. Furthermore, random forest models were employed to examine the drivers of the shifts in these relationships. The results showed that WY and SR services witnessed growth until 2015, and then receded, while HQ saw a modest decline from 2010 to 2020. Spatial synergies in the supply and demand of ESs were primarily observed in the southern cities, with a significant northward extension by 2020. From a temporal perspective, the percentage of cities achieving coordination in WY and SR services increased from 32.6% to 57.3%, respectively, in the 2010-2015 period to 42.4% and 63.3% between 2015 and 2020, meanwhile, HQ service conflicts diminished from 58.7% to 53.5%. The changes in socioeconomic and land use factors contributed to 64.3%, 36.1%, and 33.3% of the shifts in the supply-demand relationship for HQ, WY, and SR services, respectively. Our analysis highlights the potential of human-driven ecological management to enhance the balance of this relationship. It can support the design of city-specific policies that foster a balance between ecological processes and socio-economic development.