Sharma Saloni, Ojha Piyush Kumar, Bangar Vaibhav, Sarangi Chandan, Koren Ilan, Kumar Krishan, Mishra Amit Kumar
School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi 110067, India.
Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology-Madras, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India.
Sci Total Environ. 2024 Oct 15;947:174454. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174454. Epub 2024 Jul 3.
The cloud responses to global warming are captured in various global climate models with distinct inferences on changes in cloud vertical structure as function of surface warming. However, long term observational evidences are scarce to validate the model outputs. Here, we have studied the changes in radiosonde derived cloud macro-physical properties and their association with other atmospheric variables during the period 2000-2019 in response to warming climate over the Indian summer monsoon region. We have observed a statistically significant increase in the frequency of cloudy days (∼13 % decade), high-level clouds (HLCs ∼11 % decade) and simultaneous decrease in low-level clouds (LLCs ∼8 % decade) over the Indian region during the monsoon season. The multiple linear regression, principle component analyses and further correlation analyses suggest significant associations between cloud vertical structure variations and large-scale climate indicators, such as global warming and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The vertical extension of the tropospheric column and the upward shift of clouds, attributed to global warming, explain the changes observed in both HLCs and LLCs. These results contribute to a deeper understanding of the dynamic interplay between global climate change and regional cloud dynamics, with implications for weather and climate modeling.
各种全球气候模型捕捉到了云对全球变暖的响应，这些模型对云垂直结构随地表变暖的变化有不同的推断。然而，缺乏长期观测证据来验证模型输出。在此，我们研究了2000 - 2019年期间，印度夏季风区域气候变暖背景下，探空仪观测得到的云宏观物理特性变化及其与其他大气变量的关联。我们观测到，在季风季节，印度地区多云天数频率（约每十年增加13%）、高云频率（约每十年增加11%）有统计学显著增加，同时低云频率（约每十年减少8%）下降。多元线性回归、主成分分析以及进一步的相关性分析表明，云垂直结构变化与大规模气候指标（如全球变暖和厄尔尼诺 - 南方涛动）之间存在显著关联。归因于全球变暖的对流层垂直伸展和云的向上移动，解释了高云和低云出现的变化。这些结果有助于更深入地理解全球气候变化与区域云动力学之间的动态相互作用，对天气和气候建模具有重要意义。
