GWAS elucidated grain yield genetics in Indian spring wheat under diverse water conditions.

Underpinned natural variations and key genes associated with yield under different water regimes, and identified genomic signatures of genetic gain in the Indian wheat breeding program. A novel KASP marker for TKW under water stress was developed and validated. A comprehensive genome-wide association study was conducted on 300 spring wheat genotypes to elucidate the natural variations associated with grain yield and its eleven contributing traits under fully irrigated, restricted water, and simulated no water conditions. Utilizing the 35K Wheat Breeders' Array, we identified 1155 quantitative trait nucleotides (QTNs), with 207 QTNs exhibiting stability across diverse conditions. These QTNs were further delimited into 539 genomic regions using a genome-wide LD value of 3.0 Mbp, revealing pleiotropic control across traits and conditions. Sub-genome A was significantly associated with traits under irrigated conditions, while sub-genome B showed more QTNs under water stressed conditions. Favourable alleles with significantly associated QTNs were delineated, with a notable pyramiding effect for enhancing trait performance. Additionally, allele of only 921 QTNs significantly affected the population mean. Allele profiling highlighted C-306 as a most potential source of drought tolerance. Moreover, 762 genes overlapping significant QTNs were identified, narrowing down to 27 putative candidate genes overlapping 29 novel and functional SNPs expressing (≥ 0.5 tpm) relevance across various growth conditions. A new KASP assay was developed, targeting a gene TraesCS2A03G1123700 regulating thousand kernel weight under severe drought condition. Genomic selection models (GBLUP, BayesB, MxE, and R-Norm) demonstrated an average prediction accuracy of 0.06-0.58 across environments, indicating potential for trait selection. Retrospective analysis of the Indian wheat breeding program supported a genetic gain in GY at the rate of ca. 0.56% per breeding cycle, since 1960, supporting the identification of genomic signatures driving trait selection and genetic gain. These findings offer insight into improving the rate of genetic gain in wheat breeding programs globally.