Department of Physics, Institute of Science, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, 221005, India.
Environ Monit Assess. 2024 Jul 8;196(8):714. doi: 10.1007/s10661-024-12862-1.
Human-generated aerosol pollution gradually modifies the atmospheric chemical and physical attributes, resulting in significant changes in weather patterns and detrimental effects on agricultural yields. The current study assesses the loss in agricultural productivity due to weather and anthropogenic aerosol variations for rice and maize crops through the analysis of time series data of India spanning from 1998 to 2019. The average values of meteorological variables like maximum temperature (TMAX), minimum temperature (TMIN), rainfall, and relative humidity, as well as aerosol optical depth (AOD), have also shown an increasing tendency, while the average values of soil moisture and fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR) have followed a decreasing trend over that period. This study's primary finding is that unusual variations in weather variables like maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, soil moisture, and FAPAR resulted in a reduction in rice and maize yield of approximately (2.55%, 2.92%, 2.778%, 4.84%, 2.90%, and 2.82%) and (5.12%, 6.57%, 6.93%, 6.54%, 4.97%, and 5.84%), respectively. However, the increase in aerosol pollution is also responsible for the reduction of rice and maize yield by 7.9% and 8.8%, respectively. In summary, the study presents definitive proof of the detrimental effect of weather, FAPAR, and AOD variability on the yield of rice and maize in India during the study period. Meanwhile, a time series analysis of rice and maize yields revealed an increasing trend, with rates of 0.888 million tons/year and 0.561 million tons/year, respectively, due to the adoption of increasingly advanced agricultural techniques, the best fertilizer and irrigation, climate-resilient varieties, and other factors. Looking ahead, the ongoing challenge is to devise effective long-term strategies to combat air pollution caused by aerosols and to address its adverse effects on agricultural production and food security.
人为气溶胶污染逐渐改变了大气的化学和物理特性，导致天气模式发生重大变化，并对农业产量产生不利影响。本研究通过分析 1998 年至 2019 年印度的时间序列数据，评估了天气和人为气溶胶变化对水稻和玉米作物农业生产力的损失。气象变量（如最高温度（TMAX）、最低温度（TMIN）、降雨量和相对湿度）以及气溶胶光学深度（AOD）的平均值也呈现出上升趋势，而同期土壤湿度和吸收的光合有效辐射分数（FAPAR）的平均值则呈下降趋势。本研究的主要发现是，最高和最低温度、降雨量、相对湿度、土壤湿度和 FAPAR 等天气变量的异常变化导致水稻和玉米产量分别减少了约（2.55%、2.92%、2.778%、4.84%、2.90%和 2.82%）和（5.12%、6.57%、6.93%、6.54%、4.97%和 5.84%）。然而，气溶胶污染的增加也导致水稻和玉米的产量分别减少了 7.9%和 8.8%。总的来说，该研究明确证明了在研究期间，天气、FAPAR 和 AOD 变化对印度水稻和玉米产量的不利影响。同时，对水稻和玉米产量的时间序列分析表明，由于采用了越来越先进的农业技术、最佳的肥料和灌溉、抗气候的品种以及其他因素，产量呈上升趋势，年增长率分别为 0.888 百万吨/年和 0.561 百万吨/年。展望未来，当前的挑战是制定有效的长期战略，以应对气溶胶造成的空气污染，并解决其对农业生产和粮食安全的不利影响。
