Institute for Global Public Health, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.
Partners for Health and Development in Africa, Nairobi, Kenya.
J Int AIDS Soc. 2024 Jul;27 Suppl 2(Suppl 2):e26245. doi: 10.1002/jia2.26245.
INTRODUCTION: The HIV Prevention 2025 Roadmap, developed by UNAIDS, recommends the adoption of a precision prevention approach focused on priority populations and geographies. With reduction in new HIV acquisitions in many countries, designing a differentiated HIV prevention response, using a Programme Science approach, based on the understanding of the epidemic and transmission dynamics at a sub-national level, is critical. METHODS: To support strategic planning, an epidemic appraisal at the sub-national level across 47 counties, with the 2019 population ranging from 0.14 million in Lamu to 4.40 million in Nairobi City, was conducted in Kenya using several existing data sources. Using 2021 Spectrum/EPP/Naomi model estimates of national and sub-national HIV incidence and prevalence, counties with high HIV incidence and prevalence were identified for geographic prioritization. The size of local key population (KP) networks and HIV prevalence in key and general populations were used to define epidemic typology and prioritize populations for HIV prevention programmes. Analysis of routine programme monitoring data for 2021 was used to assess coverage gaps in HIV prevention programmes, including prevention of vertical transmission, anti-retroviral therapy, KP programmes, adolescent girls and young women programme, and voluntary male medical circumcision programme. RESULTS: Ten counties with more than 1000 incident acquisitions in 2021 accounted for 57% of new acquisitions. Twenty-four counties were grouped into the concentrated epidemic type-due to their low prevalence in the general population, high prevalence in KPs and relatively higher density of female sex workers and men who have sex with men populations. Four counties reflected a generalized epidemic, where HIV prevalence was more than 10% and 30%, respectively, among the general and key populations. The remaining 19 counties were classified as having mixed epidemics. Gaps in programmes were identified and counties where these gaps need to be addressed were also prioritized. CONCLUSIONS: The HIV burden in Kenya is unevenly distributed and hence the mix of prevention strategies may vary according to the epidemic typology of the county. Prioritization of programmes based not only on disease burden and epidemic typology, but also on the prevailing gaps in coverage for reducing inequities is a key aspect of this appraisal.
简介:UNAIDS 制定的《2025 年艾滋病毒预防路线图》建议采用以重点人群和重点地区为中心的精准预防方法。随着许多国家新感染艾滋病毒人数的减少,根据国家以下各级的疫情和传播动态的了解,采用方案科学方法制定有区别的艾滋病毒预防应对措施至关重要。
方法:为支持战略规划,在肯尼亚的 47 个县进行了国家以下各级的疫情评估,使用了几个现有数据源,这些县的 2019 年人口从拉穆的 0.14 万到内罗毕市的 440 万不等。利用 2021 年 Spectrum/EPP/Naomi 模型对国家和国家以下各级艾滋病毒发病率和流行率的估计数,确定了发病率和流行率较高的县作为地理优先县。利用地方主要人口群体(KP)网络的规模和 KP 和一般人群中的艾滋病毒流行率,来确定流行类型并为艾滋病毒预防规划确定重点人群。对 2021 年常规方案监测数据的分析,评估了艾滋病毒预防规划的覆盖差距,包括预防垂直传播、抗逆转录病毒疗法、KP 方案、青少年女孩和年轻妇女方案以及自愿男性医疗包皮环切方案。
结果:2021 年有 10 个县有 1000 多例新发病例,占新发病例的 57%。24 个县被归为集中流行类型,因为它们在一般人群中的流行率低,但 KP 中的流行率高,且性工作者和男男性行为者的人口密度相对较高。4 个县反映出普遍流行,一般人群和关键人群中的艾滋病毒流行率分别超过 10%和 30%。其余 19 个县被归类为混合流行。发现方案存在差距,并确定了需要解决这些差距的优先县。
结论:肯尼亚的艾滋病毒负担分布不均,因此预防策略的组合可能因县的流行类型而异。根据县的流行类型,不仅根据疾病负担和流行类型,而且根据缩小差距以减少不平等的现行方案覆盖率,对方案进行优先排序,是这种评估的一个关键方面。
Sex Transm Infect. 2017-12-14