Kanga Shruti, Roy Priyanka, Singh Suraj Kumar, Meraj Gowhar, Kumar Pankaj, Debnath Jatan
Department of Geography, School of Environment and Earth Sciences, Central University of Punjab, Bathinda, Punjab, India.
Centre for Climate Change and Water Research, Suresh Gyan Vihar University, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India.
Risk Anal. 2025 Jan;45(1):154-176. doi: 10.1111/risa.15102. Epub 2024 Jul 10.
Dengue fever (DF) is a pervasive public health concern in tropical climates, with densely populated regions, such as India, disproportionately affected. Addressing this issue requires a multifaceted understanding of the environmental and sociocultural factors that contribute to the risk of dengue infection. This study aimed to identify high-risk zones for DF in Jaipur, Rajasthan, India, by integrating physical, demographic, and epidemiological data in a comprehensive risk analysis framework. We investigated environmental variables, such as soil type and plant cover, to characterize the potential habitats of Aedes aegypti, the primary dengue vector. Concurrently, demographic metrics were evaluated to assess the population's susceptibility to dengue outbreaks. High-risk areas were systematically identified through a comparative analysis that integrated population density and incidence rates per ward. The results revealed a significant correlation between high population density and an increased risk of dengue, predominantly facilitated by vertical transmission. Spatially, these high-risk zones are concentrated in the northern and southern sectors of Jaipur, with the northern and southwestern wards exhibiting the most acute risk profiles. This study underscores the importance of targeted public health interventions and vaccination campaigns in vulnerable areas. It further lays the groundwork for future research to evaluate the effectiveness of such interventions, thereby contributing to the development of robust evidence-based strategies for dengue risk mitigation.
登革热（DF）是热带气候地区普遍存在的公共卫生问题，像印度这样人口密集的地区受到的影响尤为严重。解决这一问题需要多方面了解导致登革热感染风险的环境和社会文化因素。本研究旨在通过在一个全面的风险分析框架中整合物理、人口和流行病学数据，确定印度拉贾斯坦邦斋浦尔市登革热的高风险区域。我们调查了土壤类型和植物覆盖等环境变量，以描述主要登革热传播媒介埃及伊蚊的潜在栖息地。同时，评估人口统计指标以评估人群对登革热疫情的易感性。通过综合每个病房的人口密度和发病率的比较分析，系统地确定了高风险区域。结果显示，高人口密度与登革热风险增加之间存在显著相关性，主要是由垂直传播促成的。在空间上，这些高风险区域集中在斋浦尔市的北部和南部地区，北部和西南部的病房呈现出最严重的风险状况。本研究强调了在脆弱地区开展有针对性的公共卫生干预措施和疫苗接种运动的重要性。它进一步为未来评估此类干预措施有效性的研究奠定了基础，从而有助于制定强有力的基于证据的登革热风险缓解策略。
