Xue Ying, Liu Hongbin
College of Land and Environment, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China.
College of Economics and Management, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China.
Foods. 2024 Jun 26;13(13):2024. doi: 10.3390/foods13132024.
As the main service mode and management mode of socialized service, agricultural production trusteeship services (APTS) are an important way to realize the tight link between farmers and modern agricultural development, which is highly important for ensuring national food security. By constructing a utility model of farmers, this paper deduces the decision-making mechanism of farmers' APTS from the dual mechanism of natural risk and non-agricultural employment income (NAEI) and uses the survey data of 956 farmers in the three northeastern provinces to verify the empirical results by using multivariate logit (Mlogit) and propensity score matching (PSM) methods. The research shows that natural risk hinders farmers' choice of the APTS; NAEI has a positive impact on APST, and an increase in NAEI weakens the negative effect of natural risk on the choice of the APTS, and has an enhanced moderating effect. In addition, the scale heterogeneity analysis revealed that the impacts of natural risk and NAEI on farmers of different scales are significantly different. The NAEI adjustment effect has the greatest impact on small-scale farmers, followed by medium-scale farmers. In view of this, the government should stabilize the nonagricultural employment market and improve the nonagricultural employment opportunities of farmers. APTS organizations should transfer natural risks and improve the agricultural insurance system. According to the differences of different scales of farmers, different promotion policies are formulated, and the expansion of management and deepening services is proposed to further promote the development of APTS and consolidate the foundation of food security in China.
作为社会化服务的主要服务模式和经营模式，农业生产托管服务是实现农民与现代农业发展紧密衔接的重要途径，对保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。本文通过构建农户效用模型，从自然风险和非农就业收入双重机制推导农户农业生产托管服务的决策机制，并利用东北三省956户农户的调查数据，采用多元logit模型（Mlogit）和倾向得分匹配法（PSM）对实证结果进行验证。研究表明，自然风险阻碍农户选择农业生产托管服务；非农就业收入对农业生产托管服务选择具有正向影响，且非农就业收入的增加会减弱自然风险对农业生产托管服务选择的负向影响，并具有增强的调节效应。此外，规模异质性分析表明，自然风险和非农就业收入对不同规模农户的影响存在显著差异。非农就业收入调节效应对小农户影响最大，其次是中等规模农户。鉴于此，政府应稳定非农就业市场，提高农户非农就业机会。农业生产托管服务组织应转嫁自然风险，完善农业保险体系。根据不同规模农户的差异，制定差异化的推广政策，提出拓展经营与深化服务，以进一步推动农业生产托管服务发展，筑牢我国粮食安全根基。
