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农民的风险感知、适应策略及其决定因素是否有利于应对气候变化?对巴基斯坦旁遮普省农业部门的启示。

Do farmers' risk perception, adaptation strategies, and their determinants benefit towards climate change? Implications for agriculture sector of Punjab, Pakistan.

机构信息

Institute of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Faisalabad, Pakistan.

Department of Finance, Accounting and Economics, University of Pitesti, Pitești, Romania.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Jul;30(33):79861-79882. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-27759-8. Epub 2023 Jun 8.


DOI:10.1007/s11356-023-27759-8
PMID:37291341
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10249942/
Abstract

Due to global and regional climatic dynamics for a couple of decades, agricultural productivity, rural livelihood, and food security have been badly affected in Pakistan. This study was conducted in Punjab, Pakistan, to explore the farmers' understanding of the impacts of climate change, adaptation strategies, determinants, and benefits on agriculture using data from 1080 respondents. Perceived risks by the farmers in the rice-wheat cropping system and the cotton-wheat cropping system were weed infestation, seed rate augmented, low-quality seeds, infestation of crop diseases and pests, change of cropping pattern, increase of input use, decrease of cropping intensity and productivity, decreasing soil fertility, increasing irrigation frequency, and increase of harvesting time. To alleviate the adverse influences of climate change, the adaptation strategies used by farmers were management of crop and variety, soil and irrigation water, diversification of agriculture production systems and livelihood sources, management of fertilizer and farm operations time, spatial adaptation, access to risk reduction measures and financial assets, adoption of new technologies, institutional support, and indigenous knowledge. Moreover, the results of Binary Logistic Regression indicate that adaptation strategies are affected by different factors like age, education, household family size, off-farm income, remittances, credit access, information on climatic and natural hazards, information on weather forecasting, land acreage, the experience of growing crops and rearing of livestock, tenancy status, tube well ownership, livestock inventory, access to market information, agricultural extension services, and distance from agricultural input/output market. There is a significant difference between adapters and nonadapters. The risk management system may be created to protect crops against failures caused by extreme weather events. There is a need to develop crop varieties that are both high yielding and resistant to climate change. Moreover, cropping patterns should be revised to combat the effects of climate change. To enhance farmers' standard of living, it is necessary to provide adequate extension services and a more significant number of investment facilities. These measures will assist farmers in maintaining their standard of living and food security over the long term to adapt to the effects of climate change based on various cropping zones.

摘要

由于几十年来全球和地区气候动态的影响,巴基斯坦的农业生产力、农村生计和粮食安全受到了严重影响。本研究在巴基斯坦旁遮普省进行,使用来自 1080 名受访者的数据,探讨了农民对气候变化影响、适应策略、决定因素和对农业的好处的理解。在水稻-小麦种植系统和棉花-小麦种植系统中,农民认为存在杂草滋生、种子率增加、种子质量低、作物病虫害侵袭、种植模式变化、投入使用增加、种植强度和生产力下降、土壤肥力下降、灌溉频率增加和收获时间增加等风险。为了减轻气候变化的不利影响,农民采用的适应策略包括作物和品种管理、土壤和灌溉水管理、农业生产系统和生计来源多样化、肥料和农场作业时间管理、空间适应、获得减少风险措施和金融资产、采用新技术、制度支持和本土知识。此外,二元逻辑回归的结果表明,适应策略受到年龄、教育、家庭人口规模、非农收入、汇款、信贷获取、气候和自然灾害信息、天气预报信息、土地面积、种植作物和饲养牲畜的经验、租佃状况、机井所有权、牲畜存栏量、市场信息获取、农业推广服务和距离农业投入/产出市场等不同因素的影响。适应者和非适应者之间存在显著差异。可能需要建立风险管理系统,以保护作物免受极端天气事件造成的损失。需要开发既能高产又能适应气候变化的作物品种。此外,应修改种植模式以应对气候变化的影响。为了提高农民的生活水平,需要提供充足的推广服务和更多的投资设施。这些措施将有助于农民在长期内维持其生活水平和粮食安全,以适应不同种植区的气候变化影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d95f/10249942/d43c93ba6fbf/11356_2023_27759_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d95f/10249942/ce76b24aaa30/11356_2023_27759_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d95f/10249942/d43c93ba6fbf/11356_2023_27759_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d95f/10249942/ce76b24aaa30/11356_2023_27759_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d95f/10249942/d43c93ba6fbf/11356_2023_27759_Fig2_HTML.jpg

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引用本文的文献

[1]
Influence of Natural Risks and Non-Agricultural Income on Agricultural Trusteeship Decisions in Northeast China.

Foods. 2024-6-26

[2]
Rural households' livelihood adaptation strategies in the face of changing climate: A case study from Pakistan.

Heliyon. 2024-3-12

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