The Daffodil Centre, the University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW.
Susan Wakil School of Nursing, the University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW.
Med J Aust. 2024 Jul 15;221(2):103-110. doi: 10.5694/mja2.52366.
To examine changes in multiple myeloma incidence and mortality rates during 1982-2018, and to estimate its incidence, mortality, and prevalence for 2019-2043.
Population-based statistical modelling study; analysis of and projections based on Australian Institute of Health and Welfare multiple myeloma incidence, mortality, and survival data.
Australia, 1982-2018 (historical data) and projections to 2043.
Changes in multiple myeloma incidence and mortality rates, 1982-2018, determined by joinpoint regression analysis (age-standardised to 2021 Australian population); projection of rates to 2043 based on age-period-cohort models; estimated 5- and 30-year prevalence of multiple myeloma (modified counting method).
The incidence of multiple myeloma increased during 1982-2018 (eg, annual percentage change [APC], 2006-2018, 1.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-2.2%), but the mortality rate declined during 1990-2018 (APC, -0.4%; 95% CI, -0.5% to -0.2%). The age-standardised incidence rate was projected to increase by 14.9% during 2018-2043, from 8.7 in 2018 to 10.0 (95% CI, 9.4-10.7) new cases per 100 000 population in 2043; the mortality rate was projected to decline by 27.5%, from 4.0 to 2.9 (95% CI, 2.6-3.3) deaths per 100 000 population. The annual number of people newly diagnosed with multiple myeloma was estimated to increase by 89.2%, from 2120 in 2018 to 4012 in 2043; the number of deaths from multiple myeloma was projected to increase by 31.7%, from 979 to 1289. The number of people living with multiple myeloma up to 30 years after initial diagnosis was projected to increase by 163%, from 10 288 in 2018 to 27 093 in 2043, including 13 019 people (48.1%) diagnosed during the preceding five years.
Although the decline in the mortality rate was projected to continue, the projected increases in the incidence and prevalence of multiple myeloma in Australia over the next 25 years indicate that investment in prevention and early detection research, and planning for prolonged treatment and care, are needed.
研究 1982 年至 2018 年间多发性骨髓瘤发病率和死亡率的变化，并估算 2019 年至 2043 年的发病率、死亡率和患病率。
基于人群的统计建模研究；基于澳大利亚卫生和福利研究所多发性骨髓瘤发病率、死亡率和生存数据的分析和预测。
澳大利亚，1982-2018 年（历史数据）和 2043 年的预测。
1982 年至 2018 年多发性骨髓瘤发病率和死亡率的变化，通过联合点回归分析确定（2021 年澳大利亚人口标准化）；基于年龄-时期-队列模型预测 2043 年的发病率；多发性骨髓瘤的估计 5 年和 30 年患病率（改良计数法）。
1982 年至 2018 年间，多发性骨髓瘤的发病率呈上升趋势（例如，2006 年至 2018 年的年百分比变化，1.9%；95%置信区间，1.7-2.2%），但 1990 年至 2018 年死亡率呈下降趋势（年百分比变化，-0.4%；95%置信区间，-0.5%至-0.2%）。预计 2018 年至 2043 年期间，多发性骨髓瘤的发病率将增长 14.9%，从 2018 年的 8.7 例增加到 2043 年的 10.0 例（95%置信区间，9.4-10.7）；死亡率预计将下降 27.5%，从 4.0 例降至 2.9 例（95%置信区间，2.6-3.3）。预计每年新诊断为多发性骨髓瘤的人数将增加 89.2%，从 2018 年的 2120 人增加到 2043 年的 4012 人；预计死于多发性骨髓瘤的人数将增加 31.7%，从 979 人增加到 1289 人。预计到初次诊断后 30 年，多发性骨髓瘤患者的人数将增加 163%，从 2018 年的 10288 人增加到 2043 年的 27093 人，其中包括 13019 人（48.1%）在过去五年内被诊断出患有该疾病。
尽管预计死亡率的下降将持续，但澳大利亚未来 25 年多发性骨髓瘤发病率和患病率的预计增长表明，需要投资于预防和早期发现研究，并规划延长治疗和护理。
