Salgado M Victoria, Mok Yoonseo, Jeon Jihyoun, Jaffri Mohammed, Tam Jamie, Holford Theodore R, Sánchez-Romero Luz M, Meza Rafael, Mejia Raul
Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad, Sánchez de Bustamante 27, Ciudad de Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Unidad de Conocimiento Traslacional Hospitalaria Patagónica, Hospital SAMIC El Calafate, Av. Jorge Newbery 453, El Calafate, Santa Cruz, Argentina.
Lancet Reg Health Am. 2024 Jun 21;36:100823. doi: 10.1016/j.lana.2024.100823. eCollection 2024 Aug.
Argentina's smoking rates remain high. We aim to estimate Argentina age-specific histories of smoking initiation, cessation, prevalence, and intensity by birth-cohort to inform policy interventions.
Modeling study. Data from three Argentinian nationally representative surveys conducted from 2004 to 2018 (n = 268,193) were used to generate smoking histories. The Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling (CISNET) Network Lung Working Group age, period, and cohort modeling approach was used to calculate smoking initiation and cessation probabilities, ever and current smoking prevalence, and intensity (cigarettes per day, CPD) by age, sex, and birth cohort from 1950 to 2018.
Ever smoking prevalence increases with age up to 25 and decreases with birth cohorts after 1990. Smoking initiation peaks between 15 and 18 years of age. Among females, initiation probabilities increased until the 1955 cohort, reaching a second peak in 1980-85 cohorts and declining thereafter. Males have higher initiation probabilities than females. Among males, initiation has decreased since the 1950 birth cohort, with a slight increase around the 1985 cohort. Current smoking prevalence has been decreasing since the 1960 birth cohort, except for a peak in 1980-85 cohorts. Cessation increases with age. Mean CPD increases with age and peaks around age 40, appearing flat in females since the 1985 cohort.
Recent birth cohorts seem to be experiencing lower rates of initiation, stable rates of quitting and lower current and ever smoking prevalence. The stabilization of cessation probabilities and mean CPD indicate the need to strengthen existing tobacco control measures and advance new ones.
NIH/NCI U01CA253858 grant.
阿根廷的吸烟率仍然很高。我们旨在按出生队列估计阿根廷特定年龄的吸烟起始、戒烟、流行率和吸烟强度历史，以为政策干预提供信息。
建模研究。使用2004年至2018年进行的三项阿根廷全国代表性调查的数据（n = 268,193）来生成吸烟历史。采用癌症干预与监测建模（CISNET）网络肺部工作组的年龄、时期和队列建模方法，计算1950年至2018年按年龄、性别和出生队列划分的吸烟起始和戒烟概率、曾经吸烟和当前吸烟流行率以及吸烟强度（每天吸烟支数，CPD）。
曾经吸烟流行率在25岁之前随年龄增长而上升，在1990年之后随出生队列下降。吸烟起始在15至18岁之间达到峰值。在女性中，起始概率在1955年队列之前上升，在1980 - 1985年队列中达到第二个峰值，此后下降。男性的起始概率高于女性。在男性中，自1950年出生队列以来起始率下降，在1985年队列左右略有上升。自1960年出生队列以来，当前吸烟流行率一直在下降，1980 - 1985年队列除外。戒烟率随年龄增长而上升。平均CPD随年龄增长而上升，在40岁左右达到峰值，自1985年队列以来女性的平均CPD似乎趋于平稳。
最近的出生队列似乎经历了较低的起始率、稳定的戒烟率以及较低的当前和曾经吸烟流行率。戒烟概率和平均CPD的稳定表明需要加强现有的烟草控制措施并推进新的措施。
美国国立卫生研究院/国立癌症研究所U01CA253858资助。
