Minderoo Foundation, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.
Glob Chang Biol. 2024 Jul;30(7):e17407. doi: 10.1111/gcb.17407.
Climate change is the most significant threat to natural World Heritage (WH) sites, especially in the oceans. Warming has devastated marine faunas, including reef corals, kelp, and seagrass. Here, we project future declines in species and ecosystem functions across Australia's four WH coral reef regions. Model simulations estimating species-level abundances and probabilities of ecological persistence were combined with trait space reconstructions at "present," 2050 (+1.5°C of warming), and 2100 (+2°C) to explore biogeographical overlaps and identify key functional differences and forecast changes in function through time. Future climates varied by region, with Shark Bay projected to warm the most (>1.29°C), followed by Lord Howe, when standardized to marine park size. By 2050, 40% of the Great Barrier Reef will exceed critical thresholds set by the warmest summer month (mean monthly maximum [MMM]), triggering mortality. Functional diversity was greatest at Ningaloo. At +1.5°C of warming, species and regions varied drastically in their functional responses, declined 20.2% in species richness (70 extinctions) and lost functions across all reefs. At +2°C, models predicted a complete collapse of functions, consistent with IPCC forecasts. This variability suggests a bespoke management approach is needed for each region and is critical for understanding WH vulnerability to climate change, identifying thresholds, and quantifying uncertainty of impacts. This knowledge will aid in focusing management, policy and conservation actions to direct resources, rapid action, and set biodiversity targets for these reefs of global priority. As reefs reassemble into novel or different configurations, determining the winners and losers of functional space will be critical for meeting global landmark biodiversity goals.
气候变化是对自然世界遗产(WH)地物的最大威胁,尤其是在海洋中。变暖已经摧毁了海洋动物群,包括珊瑚礁、海藻和海草。在这里,我们预测了澳大利亚四个 WH 珊瑚礁区域的物种和生态系统功能的未来下降情况。估计物种水平丰度和生态持续性概率的模型模拟与“现在”、2050 年(变暖 1.5°C)和 2100 年(变暖 2°C)的特征空间重建相结合,以探索生物地理重叠,并确定关键的功能差异,并预测功能随时间的变化。未来气候因地区而异,鲨鱼湾预计变暖幅度最大(>1.29°C),其次是豪勋爵岛,当按海洋公园大小标准化时。到 2050 年,大堡礁约 40%的面积将超过最温暖的夏季月份(月均最高值 [MMM])设定的临界阈值,引发死亡。宁加洛珊瑚礁的功能多样性最大。在变暖 1.5°C 的情况下,物种和地区的功能响应差异很大,物种丰富度下降 20.2%(约 70 个灭绝),所有珊瑚礁的功能丧失。在变暖 2°C 的情况下,模型预测所有功能将完全崩溃,与 IPCC 的预测一致。这种可变性表明,每个地区都需要采用定制的管理方法,这对于了解 WH 对气候变化的脆弱性、确定阈值和量化影响的不确定性至关重要。这方面的知识将有助于集中管理、政策和保护行动,为这些具有全球优先地位的珊瑚礁提供资源、快速行动和设定生物多样性目标。随着珊瑚礁重新组合成新的或不同的结构,确定功能空间的赢家和输家将是实现全球标志性生物多样性目标的关键。