Institute of Sociology and Social Psychology, University of Cologne, Köln, Germany.
Demography. 2024 Aug 1;61(4):1117-1142. doi: 10.1215/00703370-11463595.
In this article, we reconstruct prospective intergenerational educational mobility and explore fertility's role in this process for women born between 1925 and 1950 in 12 European countries. We do so by combining high-quality retrospective data (Generations and Gender Survey) and low-requirement prospective datasets using an inferential method developed and advanced in prior research. Our analysis shows that the negative educational fertility gradient partly compensates for the inequality in prospective mobility rates between lower and higher educated women and is most pronounced in high-inequality contexts. However, fertility's role is small and declining and thus does not account for much of the differences in mobility rates between countries. We also explore the relative importance of sibship size effects in mediating the effect of fertility gradient, finding it negligible. Finally, we explore the correspondence between prospective and retrospective estimates in the reconstruction of prospective mobility rates and suggest why the former, when available, must be preferred.
本文通过结合使用高质量的回溯性数据（世代和性别调查）和低要求的前瞻性数据集，并采用先前研究中开发和推进的推理方法，为 12 个欧洲国家在 1925 年至 1950 年间出生的女性重建预期代际教育流动性，并探讨生育在这一过程中的作用。我们的分析表明，教育生育梯度的负向不平等部分弥补了低教育程度和高教育程度女性之间预期流动率的不平等，在高不平等背景下最为明显。然而，生育的作用很小且呈下降趋势，因此不能说明国家之间流动率差异的大部分原因。我们还探讨了同胞规模效应对生育梯度效应的中介作用的相对重要性，发现其可忽略不计。最后，我们探讨了在重建预期流动率时前瞻性和回溯性估计之间的一致性，并提出了为什么在有前者可用的情况下必须优先使用前者的原因。
