Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Chemical Pollution and Environmental Safety & MOE Key Laboratory of Theoretical Chemistry of Environment, SCNU Environmental Research Institute, South China Normal University, Guangzhou, 510006, China.
School of Environment, South China Normal University, University Town, Guangzhou, 510006, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2024 Jul;31(35):48048-48061. doi: 10.1007/s11356-024-34344-0. Epub 2024 Jul 17.
Road transportation is an important contributor to carbon emissions. China's car ownership is rapidly increasing, ranking first worldwide; however, there are limited data about carbon emission inventories. This study assesses carbon emissions from road transportation from the past to the future across China, using market survey, COPERT (Computer Programme to Calculate Emissions from Road Transport) model, and a combination method of principal component analysis and backpropagation neural network. From 2000 to 2020, the national carbon emissions from road transportation grew from 11.9 to 33.8 Mt COe, accounting for 0.47% of national total emissions by then. Trucks generally emit a higher proportion (77.3%) of total emissions than passenger cars (18.9%); however, the emission proportion of passenger cars (18.9-31.0%) has increased yearly. The carbon emissions at the prefecture level show an urban agglomeration trend, decreasing from the eastern coastal areas to central China. Future car ownership is expected to grow rapidly at 3.1% during 2021-2049, but only half of that growth rate during 2051-2060. Those vehicles are expected to contribute carbon emissions of 27.2-39.1 Mt COe under different scenarios in 2060. Scientifically reducing emissions and innovatively reducing the carbon emission coefficient, combined with a reasonable new energy vehicle growth scenario, are efficient methods for reducing national carbon levels. This study demonstrates that the uncertainty is within an acceptable range. This work details the carbon emission inventories associated with road transportation in China and provides basic data for developing a better carbon reduction policy for China's car industry.
道路运输是碳排放的重要贡献者。中国的汽车保有量迅速增加，位居世界第一；然而，有关碳排放清单的数据有限。本研究使用市场调查、COPERT（道路运输排放计算机程序）模型以及主成分分析和反向传播神经网络相结合的方法，评估了中国过去到未来的道路运输碳排放。从 2000 年到 2020 年，中国道路运输的碳排放从 11.9 Mt COe 增长到 33.8 Mt COe，占当时全国总排放量的 0.47%。卡车的总排放量一般比乘用车高（77.3%）；然而，乘用车的排放比例（18.9%-31.0%）逐年增加。地级碳排放呈城市群趋势，从东部沿海地区向中部地区减少。预计 2021-2049 年期间，汽车保有量将以 3.1%的速度快速增长，但 2051-2060 年期间的增长率仅为一半。预计在 2060 年不同情景下，这些车辆将贡献 27.2-39.1 Mt COe 的碳排放。科学减排和创新降低碳排放系数，结合合理的新能源汽车增长情景，是降低国家碳水平的有效方法。本研究表明不确定性在可接受范围内。本研究详细说明了中国道路运输的碳排放清单，并为制定中国汽车工业更好的减排政策提供了基础数据。
