Mazzinari Guido, Zampieri Fernando G, Ball Lorenzo, Campos Niklas S, Bluth Thomas, Hemmes Sabrine N T, Ferrando Carlos, Librero Julian, Soro Marina, Pelosi Paolo, Gama de Abreu Marcelo, Schultz Marcus J, Serpa Neto Ary
Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, La Fe Research Institute, Valencia, Spain; Perioperative Medicine Research Group, Valencia, Spain; and Department of Statistics and Operational Research, Universidad de Valencia, Valencia, Spain.
Department of Critical Care Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada; and PROVE Network, Alberta Health Services, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
Anesthesiology. 2025 Jan 1;142(1):72-97. doi: 10.1097/ALN.0000000000005170.
The influence of high positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) with recruitment maneuvers on the occurrence of postoperative pulmonary complications after surgery is still not definitively established. Bayesian analysis can help to gain further insights from the available data and provide a probabilistic framework that is easier to interpret. The objective was to estimate the posterior probability that the use of high PEEP with recruitment maneuvers is associated with reduced postoperative pulmonary complications in patients with intermediate-to-high risk under neutral, pessimistic, and optimistic expectations regarding the treatment effect.
Multilevel Bayesian logistic regression analysis was performed on individual patient data from three randomized clinical trials carried out on surgical patients at intermediate to high risk for postoperative pulmonary complications. The main outcome was the occurrence of postoperative pulmonary complications in the early postoperative period. This study examined the effect of high PEEP with recruitment maneuvers versus low PEEP ventilation. Priors were chosen to reflect neutral, pessimistic, and optimistic expectations of the treatment effect.
Using a neutral, pessimistic, or optimistic prior, the posterior mean odds ratio for high PEEP with recruitment maneuvers compared to low PEEP was 0.85 (95% credible interval, 0.71 to 1.02), 0.87 (0.72 to 1.04), and 0.86 (0.71 to 1.02), respectively. Regardless of prior beliefs, the posterior probability of experiencing a beneficial effect exceeded 90%. Subgroup analysis indicated a more pronounced effect in patients who underwent laparoscopy (odds ratio, 0.67 [0.50 to 0.87]) and those at high risk for postoperative pulmonary complications (odds ratio, 0.80 [0.53 to 1.13]). Sensitivity analysis, considering severe postoperative pulmonary complications only or applying a different heterogeneity prior, yielded consistent results.
High PEEP with recruitment maneuvers demonstrated a moderate reduction in the probability of postoperative pulmonary complication occurrence, with a high posterior probability of benefit observed consistently across various prior beliefs, particularly among patients who underwent laparoscopy.
高呼气末正压(PEEP)联合肺复张手法对术后肺部并发症发生情况的影响尚未明确。贝叶斯分析有助于从现有数据中获得更多见解,并提供一个更易于解释的概率框架。目的是在对治疗效果持中性、悲观和乐观预期的情况下,估计高PEEP联合肺复张手法的使用与中高风险患者术后肺部并发症减少相关的后验概率。
对三项针对术后肺部并发症中高风险手术患者进行的随机临床试验的个体患者数据进行多水平贝叶斯逻辑回归分析。主要结局是术后早期发生的术后肺部并发症。本研究考察了高PEEP联合肺复张手法与低PEEP通气的效果。选择先验概率以反映对治疗效果的中性、悲观和乐观预期。
使用中性、悲观或乐观先验概率时,高PEEP联合肺复张手法与低PEEP相比的后验平均比值比分别为0.85(95%可信区间,0.71至1.02)、0.87(0.72至1.04)和0.86(0.71至1.02)。无论先验信念如何,产生有益效果的后验概率均超过90%。亚组分析表明,在接受腹腔镜手术的患者(比值比,0.67[0.50至0.87])和术后肺部并发症高风险患者(比值比,0.80[0.53至1.13])中效果更为显著。敏感性分析仅考虑严重术后肺部并发症或应用不同的异质性先验概率,结果一致。
高PEEP联合肺复张手法显示术后肺部并发症发生概率适度降低,在各种先验信念下均一致观察到获益的高后验概率,尤其是在接受腹腔镜手术的患者中。